Historian and political scientist Herfried Münkler recently summarized the main foreign policy problem for the German government: “The liberal idealism of a rules-based international order has proven to be an illusion.”
At the same time, the government views multilateralism and the preservation of the rules-based international order as its overarching goals. Foreign Minister Johann Wadeful of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) warned that “China and Russia are attempting to rewrite the international order based on international law.”
CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the rules-based order was not only being questioned by governments long considered authoritarian. “Unfortunately, this also applies to America,” he said, referring to President Donald Trump. A recent US strategy paper has sharply criticized European allies and the EU, reinforcing this perception.
‘Pressure on Europeans’
A major concern among German political and military leaders is that the United States could distance itself from Europe on security matters. In early December, General Christian Freuding told the magazine atlantic Direct contact with their American counterparts was “cut off”.
Freuding told the magazine that in the past communication was possible “day and night”. He called the destruction of the fast-contact channels a “warning sign” – especially in light of the possibility of an attack by Russia on eastern NATO states.
Europeans are also feeling the consequences of the change in America’s policy on Ukraine. Trump sought a peace arrangement that would meet several demands made by Russian President Vladimir Putin. And a US security strategy released in late 2025 called for “strategic stability” with Russia – to the dismay of governments elsewhere in Europe.
“If it turns out that the Americans somehow capitulate, the pressure on the Europeans to be able to act and mount a strong countermeasure will increase once again,” Henning Hof of the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW.
Merz has worked with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to balance America’s waning commitment to Ukraine. At a trilateral meeting in London in early December, Merz declared, “No one should doubt Ukraine’s support.” Yet all three leaders also face tight budgets, domestic pressure from the political right, and a desire for public support for Ukraine in their countries.
dependent on china
With German industry dependent on rare earth elements controlled by China, Berlin has become increasingly dependent on Beijing.
“The Chinese are very successful in becoming leaders in many technological areas and taking over positions traditionally belonging to German industry,” Hof said. “And, at a moment like this, even Germany is no longer so important.”
Merz plans to visit China in early 2026. Merz told DW at the G20 summit in Johannesburg: “China could put a little more pressure on Russia to end this war.” [in Ukraine]If necessary, this issue will also be raised in my talks with the Chinese President, [Xi Jinping] Next year.” So far, nothing looks like that hope will be fulfilled.
Germany and Israel
During his December visit to Israel, Merz said: “I come as a friend of Israel who knows that the friendship between Germany and Israel is infinitely valuable and valuable.”
Following a Hamas terror attack on October 7, 2023, Israel launched a two-year war in Gaza that killed more than 70,000 people. Standing alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Merz acknowledged that the war had posed “some dilemmas” for Germany. Merz, citing Germany’s responsibility for the genocide, said his government was trying to preserve Israel’s security, but added that it would voice criticism where necessary.
In particular, Merz no longer uses the formulation of his predecessor, Angela Merkel: “The security of Israel is the cause of the state of Germany.” Instead, he said, supporting Israel’s survival and security “is at the immutable core of our relationship.”
However, on key issues, the two governments remain far apart – particularly on the two-state solution. Germany continues to support Israel as well as the idea of a future Palestinian state. Netanyahu rejected this, saying, “The purpose of the Palestinian state is to destroy the only Jewish state.”
Hans‑Jakob Schindler, a Middle East and security analyst, said that the two-state solution is “probably a vision of a very, very distant future whose practical feasibility is increasingly in question.”
Schindler said that Germany and the EU have largely lost their role as mediators in the Middle East. Schindler said, “It is clear that the Palestinian and Israeli sides see Washington as the central arbiter, not Europe.” The EU will play an important role in reconstruction and humanitarian aid in Gaza, he said, “but, as a central mediator, Europe has virtually said goodbye in the last 10 years.”
Germany’s uneasy alliance
Germany must decide how to conduct foreign policy in a world where geopolitical importance is changing and international rules are increasingly ignored.
Johannes Warwick, professor of international relations at the University of Halle, told DW via email that looking for partners that still value multilateralism — including difficult partners — is the right approach. “Germany is trying to maintain old alliances while also forming new partnerships and expanding networks with other middle powers around the world,” Warwick wrote, citing Brazil, Mexico and Vietnam as examples. It is essential, Warwick wrote, to “remain in critical dialogue with one another.” “Talking only to people who already agree makes one quite isolated in the reality of international politics.”
Merz has placed an emphasis on foreign policy from the beginning – and, because of his many foreign trips, he has sometimes been jokingly referred to as the “foreign-policy chancellor”.
“Overall, one can actually speak of a definite revitalization,” Hoff said.
However, he added, “Berlin’s foreign policy is still too slow to react to this new global situation.” Changes are expected in the Ministry of External Affairs; Among other things, a commission will raise the issue of dependence on China in 2026. “It’s all good,” Hof said, “but it’s two, three, four, five years too late.” And, if they do not manage to bring more momentum to the process, things will get tricky.
This article was originally written in German.
While you’re here: Every Tuesday, DW editors provide insight into what’s happening in German politics and society. You can sign up for the weekly email newsletter, Berlin Briefing, here.