Institutional capital will be the driver of the price of bitcoin (BTC), says Grayscale.
Coinshares believes that by 2026, bitcoin will no longer be perceived as an experimental asset.
Bitcoin (BTC) would be preparing for a structural transformation in 2026 after a close in 2025 marked by volatility and a 36% decline in market valuation.
As the Bitcoin halving enters a phase of maturity, projections from analysts and investment firms suggest that next year will not simply be a recovery period, but the beginning of an era dominated by institutional capital and the consolidation of bitcoin as a global reserve asset.
Investment firm Grayscale holds that the current bull market will find a new catalyst in deep financial integration. «Our optimistic outlook is based on two main pillars. First, there will be continued macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value,” he explains.
«Bitcoin can be considered a scarce digital commodity and alternative monetary asset. While fiat currencies face additional risks due to high and growing public sector debt and its potential implications for inflation over time,” notes Grayscale. The company, although it predicts a bullish 2026, does not mention a specific price for the digital currency in its conclusions.
Scarce commodities, whether gold and silver or bitcoin, can serve as a counterweight in portfolios against the risks of fiat currencies. As the risk of devaluation of fiat currencies continues to increase, in our opinion, demand for bitcoin in wallets will likely continue to increase as well.
Grayscale, asset management company
For the signature, The second fundamental pillar is legislative clarity. In 2026, Grayscale expects the US Congress to “pass bipartisan legislation on cryptocurrency market structure, which will likely consolidate digital assets in US capital markets and facilitate continued institutional investment.”
“With a favorable macroeconomic context, we believe these are the conditions for new highs for bitcoin in 2026,” Grayscale concludes.
The transition of bitcoin as a standardized asset
For its part, the CoinShares firm agrees that market perception is turning towards financial maturity.
The company states that in 2026 “bitcoin will complete its transition from an asset perceived as experimental to one that is normalized within institutional portfolios.” This process, he maintains, is driven by a clearer regulatory environmentthe expansion of the options market and the strengthening of flows linked to bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
In the optimistic scenario, CoinShares describes “a combination of soft landing, AI-driven productivity improvement, and more decisive rate cuts.”
A framework that—according to the firm—would favor risk-taking and “put bitcoin above $150,000.” In the base scenario, the most probable, the entity projects “subdued growth, positive real returns and a prudent Federal Reserve (FED).” This would translate into more stable market behavior. regaining strength in 2026, taking “bitcoin to $110,000 – $140,000 next year.”
The bearish scenario is defined as “the threat of stagflation or recession with rising real yields,” an environment that would pressure ETFs and strengthen defensive flows. “Here, BTC would reach 70,000 – 100,000 dollars,” the firm’s research points out.
Adjustment of banking expectations
Standard Chartered, the multinational bank, has also reviewed your numbers. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at the institution, has adjusted expectations after recent bearish performance.
“I still see bitcoin continuing to make new all-time highs in the future, but I think the pace will be slower than previously expected,” Kendrick said.
The bank was forced to reevaluate its price targets in light of the recent bitcoin price fluctuation. This has fallen up to 36% from its all-time high of $126,000, reached last October, to touch $80,000 in November.
Standard Chartered predicts that “bitcoin will close this year at $100,000, down from its previous prediction of $200,000.” By 2026, the bank “forecasts that bitcoin will close the year at $150,000, 50% less than the previously forecast $300,000,” reflecting a more cautious, but still bullish stance for the long term.