The possibility of BTC reaching USD 50,000 has 7% of the bets.
If “extreme fear” grows, bitcoin could fall to $60,000, says Sebastian Serrano, CEO of Ripio.
The price of bitcoin maintains an upward trend that places it above $71,000, a slight upward trend that makes Polymarket prediction market operators concentrate their bets around the possible price of BTC at the monthly close. And the greatest consensus among platform participants is grouped in a range that suggests moderate optimism.
The highest probabilities are assigned to levels that place the price of the digital currency between 75,000 (62%) and 65,000 dollars (53%). In this way, the data from this March 10 in Polymarket indicate that the market sees it very likely that at the end of March the price will remain at a relatively stable price.
According to the platform’s records, at the $75,000 option, buying a “YES” contract costs 58 cents, reflecting 57%-58% implied probability. If the prediction comes true, that contract will be worth $1..
This behavior arises after having set lows of $65,513 last weekend. All this, within the framework of the Middle East conflict that has been developing between the United States, Israel and Iran since February 28.
In that sense, bitcoin registers an appreciation of 15% from the lowest point it marked on February 6, when it was listed at $60,074.
The probability of reaching USD 100,000 is low
A look at the betting extremes on Polymarket shows a clear inclination towards bullish stability. For participants, the probability of bitcoin exceeding $80,000 is 27%. while the chance of seeing stratospheric prices like $100,000 or more drops dramatically to 1%.
Regarding fall scenarios, the market assigns very little chance of a severe crash. A decline below $50,000 is only 7%, and levels below $40,000 are considered almost impossible for these users (1% probability).
There are 21 days and 13 hours left until the bet is closed, which adds pressure to the volatility of these percentages as the deadline approaches.
There is optimism but bearish sentiment persists
The recent rally in the price, which at press time exceeds USD 71,000, could be generating positive expectations in the market. This possibly affects the moderate optimism that appears in Polymarket, which even dismisses a sharp drop in price.
However, some industry voices recommend maintain a vigilant posture and do not rule out possible corrections.
Sebastián Serrano, CEO of the Ripio exchange, points out in a statement sent to CriptoNoticias that “if the feeling of extreme fear in the market deepens, bitcoin could continue to fall to test regions of $60,000 and $53,000. “Such a fact would take it to its lowest level since February 2024 (two years ago).”
In that sense, the fear and greed index from CoinMarketCap, has taken a small step, rising to 28 points. To date it is going from “extreme fear” towards emotional recovery to delve into “fear”. This indicates that although pessimism remains, the selling pressure has eased somewhat. That is, investors are cautious, but they are no longer in a state of paralysis or total collapse.
Regarding the duration of this bearish market cycle, Serrano states: «I am confident that we are entering a short crypto winter, of around a year. If we mark its start in October 2025, then we could see a cooling that stretches until October or December of this year.