Attacks on oil facilities and missile bases in the US-Israeli war with Iran are raising concerns among experts about a toxic legacy to human health and the environment that could persist long after the fighting ends.
Since the conflict began, the UK-based non-profit Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS) has identified more than 300 incidents of potential environmental harm – ranging from attacks on missile bases to attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
But researchers say that figure probably represents only a fraction of the damage.
“This is just the tip of the iceberg,” Doug Weir, CEOBS director, told DW. “The US is claiming that they have attacked 5,000 sites. So right now, we are only scratching the surface.”
The UN also warned that recent attacks on oil facilities “could have serious environmental consequences throughout the region, with immediate potential impacts on safe water, the air people need to breathe, and food.”
An indication of those risks came when “black rain” – a mixture of oil and rain – covered the streets of Tehran following Israel’s weekend attacks on several oil facilities.
Fires at the facilities sent thick black smoke billowing across the capital, home to about 10 million people, prompting Iran’s Red Crescent Society to warn residents to stay indoors to avoid toxic pollutants in the air. Some locals reported headaches and difficulty breathing.
The smoke likely contains pollutants, including “fine particulate matter and sulfur dioxide, but also toxic volatile organic compounds and other hazardous combustion by-products,” said Zongbo Shi, a professor of atmospheric biogeochemistry at the University of Birmingham, UK.
Such particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and are linked to an increased risk of respiratory and cardiovascular disease, especially in infants, the elderly and people with pre-existing health problems, Shi said.
The bombings: a long toxic legacy
In addition to immediate air pollution, experts warn that bombed military and energy sites could leave behind pollution that persists in the environment for years.
When oil facilities are bombed — as they have been in Iran and other Gulf states — they can release plumes of toxic pollutants that can spread into nearby communities and settle on roads, rooftops, soil and crop lands, CEOBS said.
Attacks on military sites such as missile bases can also be extremely dangerous, as fires and explosions spread toxic contaminants such as fuel, heavy metals, PFAS and explosives. Some of those substances may persist long after the fighting has stopped.
For example, TNT, which is used in munitions and is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), can persist in soil, harming vegetation and human health.
However, the scale of contamination is difficult to assess without on-site testing.
“There is very little transparency or certainty as to what has been affected at these sites,” Weir said. “We know in general terms that they may contain military materials, some of which are toxic such as propellant and fuel for missiles, but we actually have no specific details or data about what is in there and what has been destroyed.”
Weir’s group can only use satellite imagery, radar damage maps, social media and news reports to assess potential environmental risks remotely.
Marine ecosystem in danger
US-Israeli attacks on Iran’s navy and Tehran’s attacks on ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz also increase the risk of oil spills.
The Persian Gulf is home to extensive reefs and important marine ecosystems, such as seagrass beds that provide habitat for fish, abalone, green turtles and the world’s second-largest population of endangered dugongs. Fishing communities also depend on seafood in these waters.
“This is a dimension that we don’t necessarily see in most conflicts,” Weir said. “We have also seen a number of coastal sites attacked by Israel, where there is a high potential for pollutants to enter the coastal environment.”
The US said on Wednesday it had attacked more than 60 Iranian ships during the fighting.
Sunken ships could become a long-term source of pollution if fuel and other hazardous materials leak into surrounding waters, Weir said. An Iranian warship torpedoed during the conflict is now causing a kilometre-long oil spill near Sri Lanka, he said.
“It’s not just the Persian Gulf that’s at risk,” Weir said. “These environmental impacts have now extended to Sri Lanka.”
It had a large CO2 footprint
Another way environmental impacts could spread beyond conflict zones: through the massive amounts of planet-warming carbon emissions caused by waging war.
For example, according to the non-profit Initiative on GHG Accounting of the War, Russia’s war in Ukraine produced at least 230 million tons of CO2 equivalent in the first three years of the war. This is equivalent to the combined annual emissions of Hungary, Austria, Czechia and Slovakia.
Militaries themselves are huge fossil fuel consumers. If the world’s militaries were one country, they would have the world’s fourth largest carbon footprint, accounting for about 5.5% of global emissions.
Yet countries are not required to include military emissions in their reported national totals as part of their obligations to limit global warming under the Paris climate agreement.
When it comes to the environmental legacy of war, the focus is often on the tangible, Weir said.
“We see fires, we see explosions, we see craters, we see the movement of military vehicles, we see millions of kilometers of fiber optic cables stretched across forests, on the front lines – as we are seeing in Ukraine right now,” he said.
recovery after war
Iran was already facing severe environmental pressures, including chronic water shortages, worsening air pollution and degradation of key ecosystems due to climate change and state mismanagement.
The war is deepening those challenges. Weir said conflict is often followed by weak governance, with environmental protection taking a back seat in the transition from war to peace.
Weir believes the same will likely happen in Iran, saying, “This country is generally very secretive and closed when it comes to the environment and environmental degradation.”
Weir said that if the Iranian regime remains in place, it is unclear how open it will be about the need for cleanup, or how much support it will receive from the international community.
“We are seeing a lot of environmental damage, but it is also potentially more likely that in the future we will have very little transparency about it and our ability to be very limited in terms of cleaning up or managing any damage caused.”
Edited by: Jennifer Collins