March 2026 was a month of strong emotions for the bitcoin (BTC) market. The war in Iran, the price of oil and the US FED being unwilling to reduce interest rates increased negative sentiments among investors.
After a first quarter to forget – the worst since 2018 – in which bitcoin (BTC) fell 22%, the arrival of April raises a fundamental question: can the historical seasonality of the asset overcome the gravity of a macroeconomic context marked by the drums of war in the Middle East?
Making a price projection is, of course, a speculative task. However, it is possible to draw probable scenarios by analyzing the historical patterns of bitcoin and the geopolitical variables that today dictate the pace of global markets.
The statistics in favor: the “April effect”
Historically, April has been a good month for the digital currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto. Since 2013, bitcoin has recorded 8 positive monthly closes compared to only 5 negative ones. The average return of bitcoin in April was 12.18%, as seen in the following image:
If bitcoin managed to replicate that historical average starting from the current $68,000, The price could look for the $75,000 area at the end of the month. However, statistics are no guarantee of success, especially when global economic fundamentals are under fire.
The war in Iran is not over
The main threat to a sustained recovery comes not from the Bitcoin code, but from the Strait of Hormuz. The war involving the United States and Israel against Iran keeps this vital passage blocked, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil transits.
Even though he price of the Brent barrel fell in the last week from 115 to 102 dollars – reacting with optimism to the statements from President Donald Trump about a possible end to hostilities in two or three weeks—, the cost of energy remains high.
As CriptoNoticias has reported, the transmission mechanism is direct:
- 1) Expensive oil = persistent inflation (as transportation costs, industrial production, distribution chains, etc. increase).
- 2) Persistent inflation = high interest rates from the FED.
- 3) High rates = less liquidity for bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s bottom might not have arrived yet
Not all analysts share seasonal optimism. The trader Willy Woo has set off alarm bells by pointing out that the models on-chain traditional ones, such as CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed), suggest that The technical “floor” of this correction could be much lower, in a range between $46,000 and $54,000.
Woo even warns that if the stock market (S&P 500) loses its structural support due to the energy crisis, bitcoin would deepen its fall beyond those prices.
For his part, the Colombian analyst Juan Rodriguez agrees that bitcoin is still in a “ground building” phase. According to your analysisthe current bearish trend could extend into early May. However, Rodríguez provides a perspective note for the long-term investor: according to his view, these price levels represent areas of historical accumulation, similar to the bottoms seen in 2018 and 2022.
Bitcoin will be attentive to what happens in the Middle East
From everything said so far, it is clear that The fate of the price in the short term will be largely tied to the development of the war in Iran.
If the departure of US troops materializes within the “two weeks” period mentioned by Trump and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the fall in oil towards $80-90 would release inflationary pressure. In this context, bitcoin could quickly claim $70,000 or more.
Instead, if negotiations fail and the US proceeds with the seizure of Kharg Island or a land invasion, geopolitical uncertainty would send oil skyrocketing again (perhaps above $120) pushing bitcoin to perhaps seek the supports mentioned by Woo around $54,000 or less.
April 2026 is presented as a battlefield between the bullish force of historical statistics and the bearish force of geopolitics. For now, the $60,000 support remains as the last line of defense before a larger correction.