A month after the war on Iran, Africa is struggling to keep its engines running. In Kenya, there are reports of shortages at petrol pumps of about 20%; Suppliers attribute most of this to panic buying. The East African country typically maintains fuel reserves equivalent to about two to three weeks of national demand, highlighting its continued dependence on imports and risk of global supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, people in neighboring Tanzania have faced price increases at the pump of more than 30% – levels last seen during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Current supplies could keep the country running at current capacity for another month, indicating another potential surge.
In Ethiopia, the government has already instructed suppliers to prioritize deliveries to government projects and key industries. In the restive Tigray region, authorities have halted fuel deliveries altogether amid fears of another civil war.
South Sudan: rich in oil, but struggling with power supply
South Sudan, meanwhile, is home to some of the continent’s most promising oil reserves, but has little refining capacity of its own. The little petroleum the country manages to refine is used to generate almost all of the country’s spasmodic electricity supply.
Attia Waris, independent expert on external debt and human rights at the United Nations, believes the current crisis could get worse. “On average in most African countries, we still only have 40% electricity access,” Waris told DW. “For those who are on the electricity grid, there is a real possibility of increased power shortages,” he said.
Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, is trying to boost its refining capacities both at its dilapidated government facilities and the private Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki, outside Lagos. While Dangote has been increasing its production, Nigeria’s state-run refining infrastructure has little slack after decades of neglect. Instead, Nigeria continues to export crude oil and import refined petroleum products.
According to Waris, oil-extracting African countries like Nigeria and Angola find their hands tied in the current geopolitical environment.
“Many countries on the African continent not only have debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but also have private debt to other countries around the world,” Waris said. He said that as a result, oil is also being traded against loans. “Even if you have petroleum in your country, you can’t actually use it for your country. It has to go straight to repaying the debt.”
He warned that many countries around the world are running out of petroleum, which means factories are coming to a standstill.
Urgent need for intervention in fuel market
Waris suggests that African countries should “immediately impose price controls and other measures” to deal with the growing crisis. “Other parts of the world have already imposed reduced movement orders, work-at-home orders, stay-at-home orders, closed public spaces so that private spaces have access to oil and gas for cooking, for example. But I have not yet heard of that happening on the African continent,” she said.
Perhaps the closest comparable initiative is what is happening This week in South Africa, where President Cyril Ramaphosa’s coalition government – known for its infighting and general lack of cohesion – seems, for once, to be united in solving the biggest issue of the day together, and the government has finally agreed to mitigate the effects felt at the pump. Ramaphosa’s biggest coalition partner, the Democratic Alliance (DA), is pushing consumers to save as much as possible, and advising the government to reduce fuel duty.
Meanwhile, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, from the largest coalition partner, the African National Congress (ANC), expressed some caution about the agreement and said agreeing to reduce fuel duty just days after the signing of the next fiscal budget was a premature decision. “What are other things that would require government intervention [as a result of the war in Iran]? …we don’t know what [the] There will be long term effects. Is [the] Was going to continue? How long?” Godongwana said.
Will South Africa start refining more crude?
James Lorimer, the DA’s de facto shadow minister for minerals and petroleum resources, expressed cautious optimism about the supply outlook, noting that South Africa imported only 20% of its crude from the Middle East. This leaves the country in a somewhat flexible position to diversify its imports, which is under less pressure than some other countries on the continent.
Among other solutions, Lorimer suggested that the government could bid to secure additional supplies of refined petrol from Nigeria’s Dangote, highlighting that South Africa’s own refining capacity is limited. “Due to the closure of some of our refineries over the past few years, we do not refine all of our fuel at this time,” Lorimer explained.
Minerals Minister Mantashe proposed that some of South Africa’s closed refineries could be restarted to keep the country oil-rich, although this would impose a significant environmental burden.
Edited by: Crispin Mavakideau