After 40 days of intense attacks and counter-offensives, a two-week ceasefire announced between Iran, Israel and the United States has brought the war to a halt. As always, civilians have borne the brunt of war. Thousands of people were killed or injured, and many were displaced. Homes, infrastructure and livelihoods have been destroyed – in Iran, in Israel and across the region.
Despite the ceasefire with Iran, Israel has continued its military campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Just hours after the ceasefire was announced, Israel launched the heaviest attacks on its neighbor since the conflict with Hezbollah escalated last month.
There is no winner of war. But the conflict reshapes global politics. It affects alliances, energy markets and global influence. Looking at the Iran war from this perspective shows how power is shifting beyond the Middle East.
Iran: The regime is under pressure, but still standing
Iran has been at the center of the conflict. Since February 28, the US and Israel have launched heavy airstrikes against military targets and energy infrastructure. More than 3,600 people have been killed in Iran, according to US-based rights group HRANA. That number includes Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several other senior political and military figures, but also includes 165 people at the girls’ school, the majority of whom are children. Despite the loss of its leadership, the core of Iran’s political system remains intact.
“There is no movement toward regime change,” Ian Bremmer, a US political analyst and chairman of the Eurasia Group, told DW. “There was no movement toward saving the Iranian people, which President Trump was touting as a goal, at least in the early days of the conflict.”
In response, Iran’s regime took a high-risk step. This effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic, allowing only a few countries to use it. This is a narrow strip of water through which about one-fifth of the global oil supply passes. The move sent global oil prices soaring and increased pressure on the US and its allies.
The strategy was successful. Tehran achieved a ceasefire without accepting defeat. The government can present the truth as evidence that it will destroy the United States and all of its military power. US President Donald Trump has accepted Iran’s 10-point plan as the basis for talks. Iran’s regime has survived and has time to try to shape the next phase on more favorable terms.
United States: military advantages, political limitations
President Trump called the result a “complete and utter victory”.
Many analysts disagree.
“They have achieved some goals,” Ian Bremner told DW. “If you look at the damage done to Iran’s military capabilities, their conventional ballistic capabilities and their naval capabilities, most of them have been severely reduced.”
Some parts of its nuclear program have also been badly damaged. That matters to Washington, which says preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons was a key objective.
But America has also suffered losses. Billions of dollars worth of radar systems and aircraft were damaged or destroyed in the Iranian attacks. After Iran attacked its neighbours, not only US bases but also key infrastructure, its reputation as a protector of its Gulf allies has been seriously damaged. Relations with Europe and NATO were strained due to Washington starting the war without consulting its allies. The ceasefire has stopped attacks on US forces and has reduced the risk of a broader regional war, which is the US’s top priority. The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, which will ease pressure on oil markets.
Washington wants to meet Iran back at the negotiating table, where they were at the beginning of the war. And it has not reshaped Iran’s behavior in the way it wanted, while the cost to its international reputation has not yet been seen.
Israel: strategic benefits, long-term risks
Israel has weakened Iran’s military capabilities. It has shown that it can attack far beyond its borders and has strong US support.
Weaknesses were also exposed. Iranian missiles put Israel’s air defenses under constant stress, and some missiles hit, killing more than 30 people. There remains a threat from Iran and its regional allies.
Fawaz Georges of the London School of Economics told DW that Israel could emerge from a war “much weaker.” He argues that the diplomatic damage is likely to be considerable, especially in its neighborhood – Gulf countries are now less likely to deepen ties with Israel.
China: a long-term beneficiary
China will benefit in the long run. The US has moved many military assets to the Middle East to protect shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. That leaves fewer resources for the Indo-Pacific, where Washington and Beijing compete for influence.
Bremmer said, “China benefits not only because the United States focuses less on the Asian military environment, but also because the United States is viewed as much less trustworthy by its own allies.” “And that means China, by comparison, is seen as a relatively stable player.”
Beijing had called for restraint throughout the fighting and welcomed the ceasefire. It presented itself as a responsible global actor while protecting its economic interests.
China buys more than 80% of Iran’s oil exports, often at discounted prices. But it has recently built up large energy reserves, making it better able to absorb price shocks than many rivals.
Russia: profiting from disruption
The war has helped Russia in many ways. Rising energy prices boosted Moscow’s revenues at a time when its budget was under pressure due to the war in Ukraine. Sanctions were temporarily relaxed as countries sought alternative oil supplies.
Although prices have declined since the armistice, another advantage remains. The world’s attention has been diverted from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Furthermore, “the United States has moved most of its military capacity to the Gulf. That means the weapons systems the Ukrainians need are not going to be available,” Bremer said.
And yet Iran is an ally, one of the few countries left in the region, so its weakening is a loss for Russia.
Gulf countries say: benefits mixed with risks
The Iranian attacks affected Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries. Billions of dollars worth of energy facilities were damaged and their sense of security destroyed.
Still some countries benefited. Saudi Arabia bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and flows most of its oil into the Red Sea through its East-West Pipeline.
“Saudi Arabia’s budget actually looks very promising because they’re extracting a lot of energy and they’re getting a very high price for it,” Bremmer said.
Others were more exposed. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) relies heavily on foreign workers and investors. “Of the UAE’s more than 10 million people, 90% are expatriates,” Bremmer said. “And they have to be comfortable that this is a place that is safe for them.”
Security fears have damaged their image as safe havens – a key pillar of their economic model.
Europe: high economic price and fear of further consequences
In Europe, as in many other parts of the world, high energy prices have hit households and industries. Shipping disruptions affected trade and increased inflationary pressures at a time when many European economies were already under pressure.
This situation has increased divisions within traditional alliances. European governments refused to support American military operations. Some did not even allow airspace access for offensive operations. President Trump responded by once again threatening to pull the US out of NATO – a situation that many Europeans fear.
Pakistan: diplomatic momentum
Pakistan played a central role in brokering the ceasefire and is now ready to host further talks.
This is a major diplomatic success for Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. Pakistan has close ties to both Washington and Tehran and has been quietly sending messages between them for several weeks.
The outcome has strengthened Pakistan’s role as a regional power broker. Its rival India remained marginalized and suffered huge losses due to rising energy prices.
Edited by: Hannah Cleaver, Carla Bleiker