Bitcoin would now have one of the most attractive risk-reward setups of this cycle.
“We are closer to the beginning of an opportunity than to its end,” Moreno says of Vicente.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently going through one of the “most attractive risk-reward setups seen in recent cycle history.” This was published by the Spanish analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente yesterday, April 8, 2026.
According to the specialist, who works for the firm CryptoQuant, Combination of technical indicators suggests historic buying opportunity for bitcoinalthough this optimism collides directly with warnings about the fragility of the global context.
Under this premise, Moreno de Vicente maintains in his report that “the bitcoin stress cycle is coming to an end.” The analysis is based on the confluence of the Sharpe Ratio short-term, a metric that measures the risk-adjusted performance of an investment. However, despite the strength of these indicators, the analyst admitted that the road to recovery will not be immediate.
For the specialist, in the current scenario, “patience remains the key word” due to the opposing forces that act on the price. He Sharpe Ratio indicates how much an investor earns for each unit of volatility he supports.
Currently, this reading “has sunk deep into negative territory, touching the -40 threshold,” a level that typically identifies points where the price stops falling.
This threshold of -40 has functioned as a precise indicator to detect market bottoms in previous cycles. Moreno de Vicente explained that this point, “historically, has marked generational entry zones.” Every time the ratio has pierced this floor in the past, such as in 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2023, the asset experienced a massive revaluation shortly after, as seen in the chart.
The Spanish analyst maintains that the market is in a critical accumulation window. Extreme Negative Sharpe Readings have preceded every major bull cycle of the last decade. “We are now in exactly that same territory marked with the red circle (on the chart),” the analyst noted, suggesting that selling pressure has reached an exhaustion limit.
To complement this vision, the analysis introduces the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta, which measures the flow of supply and demand. This process is divided into three stages. First comes the «flush» or clearing of panic sellers, then a transition of stability and, finally, the return of demand. According to Moreno, the cleanup has already occurred and the market is trying to recover ground, although real demand has not yet skyrocketed.
Contrasting positions arise in the face of this enthusiasm. Among these is that of Willy Woo, market analyst and trader, who introduces a dose of skepticism based on on-chain models, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Woo notes that these traditional models point to a deeper bitcoin floor. Specifically, The specialist places this technical support in the area of ”between 46,000 and 54,000 dollars”.
This price difference raises a debate about the depth of the current decline among specialists. While Moreno de Vicente sees an already existing opportunity based on risk/reward, Woo warns bear market could be more severe. Their concern lies in a possible breakdown of the stock market that would irreparably drag down digital assets.
This vision of Woo connects with the fear of a negative correlation with traditional finance. If stock markets crash due to the global economic crisis, bitcoin could ignore its “oversold” technical indicators and continue to decline.