As Hungary approaches general elections on April 12, opinion polls are pointing to a slight lead for challenger to long-time incumbent Viktor Orbán, Peter Magyar, although many voters are still undecided and results vary by polling institute.
A poll published by IDEA in Hungary on Thursday found that 30% supported Orbán’s Fidesz party, 39% supported Magyar’s Tisza, while a potentially decisive 21% said they had not yet decided how they would vote.
But another study Published on Thursday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) Suggests that while Orbán is not ruling out his bid for a sixth term as prime minister, even his supporters are likely to disagree with him on some points of foreign policy.
This suggests that the majority of voters in the EU and NATO member country – and even about half of Fidesz’s supporters – would like to see a change in the country’s anti-EU stance. However, it also found that voters were skeptical of Ukraine’s support for Russia and opposed Kyiv’s ambitions to join the bloc.
Approval for the current US administration was clearly divided along party lines as Washington lobbied for Orbán’s re-election. Three out of four Fidesz supporters called Donald Trump a good leader for the US, while four out of five Tisza supporters called him a bad one.
What were the conclusions on Hungary’s EU policies?
The representative survey of 1,001 people, conducted between 26 March and 1 April, pointed to a majority desire for less friction in relations with the EU – mostly within the Magyar camp, but also in about half of Orbán’s supporter base.
- 43% of those surveyed call for ‘very different approach’ to EU relations
- Another 25% wanted ‘minor adjustments’ to the current approach
- Only 19% said they wanted to ‘retain the current approach’
- Among Fidesz supporters the figure rose to 44%, but still 45% wanted either major or minor changes, with the remainder undecided.
- 91% of Magyar Tisza supporters wanted a real European connection
- 77% of respondents said they support Hungary’s EU membership
- 66% also said the country should join the eurozone and adopt the single European currency.
- Only 15% of respondents expressed distrust in the EU, compared to 47% in Orbán and 32% in Magyar.
“Despite Viktor Orbán’s long-standing criticism of the EU, our new poll shows that two-thirds of Hungarians ‘trust’ the EU and overwhelmingly support maintaining their country’s membership,” said Pavel Zarka, senior policy fellow and polling lead at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
What were the conclusions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Orbán has made criticism of the EU and support for Ukraine in its war against Russia main campaign points. At last month’s summit of EU leaders, the last before the elections, Orbán blocked approval of a large loan for Kiev that was first agreed upon last December.
The study found that the government’s support for Ukraine had “cut through” with the public, which largely opposed Kyiv’s desire to join the bloc.
- 77% of Fidesz supporters wanted to maintain the current approach towards Ukraine, while only 11% of Tisza supporters felt the same way.
- Only 26% of respondents supported financial aid for Ukraine, but 47% of Tisza supporters did.
- 56% opposed Ukraine’s joining the EU; 50% of Tisza supporters supported the idea, while 77% of Fidesz supporters ‘strongly opposed’ it.
- 36% supported the transit of military aid to their neighbor through Hungary, with 77% of Fidesz supporters and 30% of Tisza supporters opposed the notion.
- 66% of Tisza supporters want to stop buying Russian oil (Hungary is exempt from EU oil sanctions), but 77% of Fidesz supporters oppose the idea.
- 62% of Fidesz supporters even said that they see Ukraine as ‘a rival – with whom we are in conflict’, while 19% of them saw Russia as an ‘ally’ and another 57% as an ‘essential partner’.
“Hungary’s European partners should not expect a complete U-turn on foreign policy matters in the event of a Magyar victory,” said Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office. “Indeed, on the subject of Ukraine, there are divisions and doubts between the Tisza and Fidesz voter factions about the merits of future financial packages for Kyiv and whether to approve Ukraine’s bid to join the EU. This suggests that Budapest will not be able to easily engage with all aspects of EU foreign policy, regardless of Sunday’s result.”
Which issues were the main priorities for voters in Hungary?
The ECFR’s findings also suggested that these clear divisions on foreign policy questions may not prove to be a decisive factor in Sunday’s vote.
For example, only 6% of respondents – 10% of Tisza supporters and 2% of Fidesz supporters – considered “relations with the EU” to be the most important issue currently facing Hungary.
Tisza supporters instead cited corruption and governance (31%), public services (18%) and cost of living and inflation (17%) as their top three issues. Meanwhile, Fidesz supporters ranked energy security (22%) and cost of living and inflation (20%) on top.
The survey, similar to the Hungarian IDEA survey released on Thursday, found that almost one in five people were still undecided. About 60% of this group also said that they would definitely go out to vote on Sunday.
Edited by: Alex Berry