The joint US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran may have stopped, but for many inside the Islamic Republic, the fear has not.
After more than a month of fighting, Tehran and Washington have agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. US and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet in Islamabad later this week for direct talks aimed at creating a lasting agreement.
Immediately after the temporary ceasefire was announced, Iranian officials moved quickly to present the agreement as a political victory, insisting that the Islamic Republic had resisted military pressure and forced its adversaries to retreat.
Iranian state messaging has portrayed the ceasefire as proof that Iran’s “victory on the battlefield” will now be politically secure.
But that is not how many people inside the country are experiencing this moment. For them the ceasefire has brought relief, but not peace.
Even though the war has stopped, Iran’s political system remains intact, increasing public concern that the war-torn but still in power government may respond by tightening repression domestically.
The tenuous reality so far means that many feared issues could be exposed at any time. Reuters news agency reported that Tehran is approaching post-ceasefire talks with an abundance of caution, while US officials have made clear they are prepared to resume fighting if diplomacy fails.
Relief, but no sense of security
An Iranian citizen, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, told DW that the ceasefire has not eased the deep fear spreading among many people.
“Now that there is a ceasefire and the regime has not changed, there is real concern that the government will become harsher with the people and the atmosphere will become even more stifling,” the source said.
This fear now permeates many conversations inside Iran, and people are worried about what will happen next.
Another Iranian told DW that many initially believed the war could quickly yield political consequences if senior leaders and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed. But this expectation proved wrong.
“We thought that would be the end of it,” the source said. “Now the war has stopped, but nothing has been resolved.”
A victory story many people don’t buy
State media and officials in Iran have tried to present the ceasefire as a victory, as if the country had turned military survival into political success. But to many Iranians that language seems detached from reality.
The leadership may still stand, but it is impossible to hide most of the costs of the war.
The conflict killed some of the Islamic Republic’s most senior figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while also damaging vital infrastructure and highlighting how close the country came to a widespread disaster.
The system survived, but survival at such a cost doesn’t automatically feel like a victory for those living through it.
And this is what is shaping the current public mood, with many citizens feeling only exhaustion, uncertainty and fear.
Anti-war does not mean pro-government
The reality of Iranian public sentiment is also more complex than the propaganda of both sides.
Many blame the Islamic Republic for the conditions that led the country to this point. At the same time, they also accuse US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of waging a war that risks even greater destruction.
Iranians reject both the arguments for state repression and military escalation.
People who spoke to DW described a different reality, saying they were against the war, but not on the terms of the regime. They do not want more bombings, more destruction or more suffering, but that does not mean they have stopped opposing the Islamic Republic.
These people fear that the regime will now use the ceasefire more aggressively than before to present itself as a victorious and peaceful society.
Babak Dorbeki, a former official at Iran’s Strategic Research Center, told DW that parts of the Revolutionary Guard may not actually have any interest in ending the war. He said, “The IRGC is not anti-war. On the contrary, it now wants war.” In his view, the real anti-war position is that of what he calls “the rational part of society”.
Dörbacki argued that opposing the war should not be separated from opposing domestic oppression. In his view, it is possible and necessary to condemn wars, executions, arrests, and authoritarian regimes at the same time.
He suggested that any meaningful anti-war position must also demand that the Islamic Republic change the way it governs society and move toward peace.
This argument reflects widespread fears among some critics of the regime that prolonged conflict could help the regime blur the line between Iran as a country and the Islamic Republic as a political system, making it harder for people to oppose one without undermining the other.
Fear increased due to Trump’s threats!
In the final days before the ceasefire, Trump’s threats to destroy bridges and power plants inside Iran were seen by Iranians as a direct threat to civilian life.
A source inside Iran told DW that after Trump’s warning, prices for domestic generators rose sharply as people rushed to buy them.
The source said what people were most afraid of was not only the possibility of another attack, but also the feeling that the country’s most basic civilian infrastructure had become a bargaining chip in a war they could not control.
Prolonged internet blackouts also increased feelings of insecurity, leaving many Iranians cut off from outside information and dependent on restricted home networks.
The serious economic crisis was already deepening
The war deepened an already severe economic crisis. A man inside Iran told DW that his family had sold savings and gold to make ends meet. His income depended on Instagram-based work, but the Internet disruption effectively ended it.
Another described how economic pressures had become so severe that even temporarily staying with relatives no longer seemed possible, as those relatives were already struggling.
For families like these, the war has meant declining incomes, rising prices and broken routines, which is why they see the two-week ceasefire not as a victory but as a brief respite.
Life is difficult for journalists
The war has also made life difficult for journalists, especially Iranians outside the country, who want to protest the war without being accused of repeating the regime’s story.
Behrouz Tourani, a veteran journalist and journalism instructor, told DW that the occasional overlap with state lines is not a problem in itself. The real issue, he said, is whether journalists lose their independence and start internalizing that narrative.
To avoid pitfalls, he advised journalists to focus primarily on the human, political and social costs of the conflict.
Although the ceasefire may have halted immediate military escalation, it does not resolve the deeper crisis. It is unclear how the US, Israel and Iran will address critical issues such as sanctions, reconstruction and political repression – leaving a sense of fragility looming over life in Iran.
Edited by: Srinivas Majumdaru