Over the past six weeks of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran, many NATO members have stood on the sidelines. While some US allies cautiously withheld support for military action and others outright prohibited the use of their military infrastructure, the Baltic states took a different approach.
All three countries described Operation Epic Fury as understandable given its support for Iran’s nuclear program, threats to neighboring countries and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, as stated by Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics.
Baltic leaders also welcomed the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader in late February, pointing to what they see as a new opportunity for the Iranian people to determine their own future.
Estonia has indicated readiness to consider deploying its destroyer ships to the Strait of Hormuz. Lithuania has gone even further, expressing its willingness to consider providing troops to assist Washington, should such a request be made.
The reasoning behind this support was best expressed by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda.
“We cannot say with one hand that the presence of US troops on the territory of Lithuania is a fixed matter and we accept it as a condition, but when we are asked to contribute to international missions, we say that is not our job,” he told Lithuanian media.
For the Baltic states, supporting their most powerful ally, the US, is considered vital to their own security, especially in relation to the threat posed by Russia.
Just this week, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned three countries of “serious consequences” over the alleged use of their airspace by drones attacking Russia – allegations all three countries strongly deny.
Avoid disturbing Donald Trump
Since the beginning of the Iran War, the Baltic states have once again established themselves as “ideal allies”. Along with Poland and the Gulf states, they were described as such by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Like Poland, the Baltic states were also among the first NATO members to respond to the US President’s call to increase defense spending, and they are now among the alliance’s leaders. In 2025, Poland allocated 4.5% of GDP to defence, Lithuania 4%, Latvia 3.7% and Estonia 3.4%. By comparison, the United States spent 3.2% of GDP.
Latvian Institute of International Affairs researcher Sergej Potapkins described this policy as an “established signature style”, aimed at “trying not to upset Donald Trump and, in general, not to enter his sphere of attention, so that the attitude towards the Baltic states that has existed since 2022 continues as long as possible.”
The current approach, deterrence by denial, holds that an adversary will not dare to attack NATO countries if it believes it cannot achieve its objectives. As former US President Joe Biden and European leaders have repeatedly said, NATO is ready to defend every inch of its territory.
This strategy replaced resistance with retaliation. According to Potapkins, that earlier approach did not suit the Baltic states, as it implied the possibility of partial occupation of their territory.
planning for contingency
Indeed, Trump’s skeptical comments about the defense of NATO allies came as little surprise to the Baltic states. For example, a 2025 survey in Latvia showed that only 43% of respondents believe – or believe – that NATO would be willing to fight for the country if it were attacked, while 41% think it is unlikely.
This awareness of their responsibility for defense has led to the development of national guardsmen in the Baltic states – volunteer defense forces tasked with making occupation of the territory impossible in the event of a Russian attack.
Sigita Struberga, Secretary General of the Latvian Transatlantic Organization, said that Latvians are increasingly realizing that there is no separate NATO army, but “NATO is us.”
“Taking into account the mandatory military service and the number of people serving in the professional army, the number is still not enough. We need National Guards,” Struberga told DW.
Strengthening NATO’s presence
As part of preparations to reduce US involvement in NATO, Potapkins points to the deployment of allied military contingents from other countries. Such forces are deployed in each Baltic state.
In Lithuania, it also included the German 45th Armored Brigade. It currently numbers around 1,800 troops, and plans to increase the deployment to 4,800 military personnel and 200 civilian employees by 2027.
The Canadian-led multinational brigade in Latvia consists of approximately 2,000 personnel. In Estonia, about 1,500 troops are deployed as part of a United Kingdom-led multinational battle group.
Potapkins said, “Increasing troops in negotiations with partners is now a top priority for both diplomats and the military. This is one of those cases where more is better.”
Furthermore, he argues that if the United States modifies its role in NATO, the Baltic states should move quickly to prepare their military infrastructure – including anti-tank “dragon’s teeth” and counter-drone systems. If this happens, other NATO allies are likely to focus on their own security, leaving the Baltic states with little room to pursue such projects.