The UAE’s decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance on May 1, 2026, “reflects policy-driven development aligned with long-term market fundamentals,” Emirati Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said at the X.
“The time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners, and global energy markets,” he wrote.
so According to the Emirati WAM news agency, disruptions in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz influenced the decision.
As part of the US-Israeli war in Iran, Tehran has attacked the UAE with thousands of drones and missiles, killing civilians, damaging infrastructure and oil production facilities, while also targeting US bases.
However, after Tehran closed it, Abu Dhabi’s call for a joint military response by Gulf states to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a key waterway for transporting a fifth of the global oil supply, including to the United Arab Emirates – failed to gain traction, especially as Saudi Arabia insisted on a diplomatic approach instead.
“The war marked a strategic opening,” Christian Alexander, senior fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defense Institute, an Abu Dhabi-based think tank, told DW.
He believes there was an underlying logic that predicted conflict with Iran. He said the UAE announced its decision at a time when Gulf exports are limited and oil markets are tight, allowing it to present the move as a way to improve future supply response.
“Once Hormuz access is improved again, Abu Dhabi will have greater freedom to operate like a commercially active energy exporter rather than being constrained by cartel discipline,” Alexander said.
UAE may take other steps
Sami Hamdi, managing director of The International Interest, a London-based risk-intelligence consultancy, points to another aspect of the announcement.
“It’s worth noting that this happened on the same day that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted a summit with regional leaders to create a unified front on Iran’s blockage in the Strait of Hormuz,” he told DW. “It’s almost as if the UAE is saying to Saudi Arabia, we will no longer live under your leadership,” Hamdi said.
He would not rule out that the UAE could next withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC – a political and economic alliance of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman that cooperates on multiple fronts, including joint military action and economic integration – or the Arab League, a regional organization of 22 Arab states.
Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, also believes “a lot more is coming.”
Ahead of Tuesday’s summit in Saudi Arabia, he wrote
However, a UAE official told news agency Reuters on Wednesday that, at the moment, no further evacuations are planned.
Strained relations with Riyadh
Observers agree that the more imminent risk is to further strain relations with Saudi Arabia and expose the UAE to accusations of opportunism amid regional tensions.
Even before the disagreement over closing the Strait of Hormuz, the two countries were supporting opposition parties in Sudan, Libya and Yemen.
Although both countries remain close allies of the US, the UAE signed a US-brokered normalization agreement with Israel in 2020, while Saudi Arabia halted such talks on October 7, 2023, following the Hamas terror attack on Israel and the ensuing two-year war in Gaza.
“Abu Dhabi views its relations with Washington and Israel as important security channels while remaining independent in making decisions on energy, investment, China and regional diplomacy,” Alexander said.
Despite this, he believes that the UAE, as well as Saudi Arabia, will avoid any open rupture for the time being as political cohesion between the Gulf countries still holds security value.
“While I believe the UAE’s exit will not lead to direct confrontation with Riyadh, it underlines that the two Gulf powers are increasingly pursuing parallel national development models that cooperate when useful, while competing intensely when interests diverge.”
However, this does not mean the countries will not become arch rivals in the medium to long term, he said.
“Saudi-UAE competition could intensify in several areas: oil market share, logistics, tourism, financial services, technology, AI investments and efforts to attract foreign direct investment,” Alexander said.
Expensive reforms in UAE and Saudi Arabia
Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, or MBZ, and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS, are pouring resources into major economic transformation plans – known in Saudi Arabia as Vision 2030 and UAE 2031, which aim to reduce dependence on oil and transform the countries into regional hubs for digital infrastructure, tourism, trade and investment.
However, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil exporter and much larger in geographic and population size than the UAE, has been prioritizing higher oil prices over increased production for years.
“In contrast, the UAE has spent heavily to expand production capacity, while OPEC+ constraints limit how much of that capacity can be monetized,” Alexander said. The UAE will also not need to find new buyers, as it already has long-standing energy relationships with major Asian consumers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea.
He further said that there are other indirect financial dimensions also worth considering.
“The UAE dirham is pegged to the US dollar, and the dollar continues to be valued heavily in global oil trade,” he said. “As a result, higher UAE oil exports generally translate into strong foreign exchange inflows, large fiscal surpluses and strong confidence in the country’s macroeconomic stability.”
Edited by: Rob Mudge