The Trump administration is trying to force Iran to make concessions by cutting its oil exports. Will it prevail?
A ceasefire has been reached between the US and Iran after several weeks of fighting, with Washington now looking for a way out of the conflict with Iran. Two options are on the table. The US could extend its naval blockade of Iranian ports, or launch a new wave of strikes to put pressure on the Iranian regime.
“The US often combines strategic messaging and deliberate ambiguity to give it room to maneuver,” says Iran expert Fatemeh Aman, who previously worked for the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, and the Atlantic Council.
In fact, wall street journal The report said that US President Donald Trump is preparing for a long-term blockade of Iran. Citing government sources, the outlet says the US aims to keep pressure on the Iranian economy and exports until Tehran agrees to make concessions.
According to American news outlet Axios, the US administration is also considering further military operations against Iran. On Wednesday, Trump urged the Iranian leadership to agree to a peace deal, telling them “they better get smart soon.”
The Trump administration wants Iran to abandon its nuclear program, hand over 400 kilograms (882 pounds) of highly enriched uranium and reduce its regional influence.
At present it is not clear when America will lift its blockade on Iranian ports.
pressure around the Strait of Hormuz
Restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has become the most important means of putting pressure on Iran. The strait is of central importance to the global economy, as the Persian Gulf states use it to export most of their oil and gas. According to the United Nations, the number of ships passing through the strait has fallen by more than 95% since the war began two months ago.
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), says these supply shortages also apply to fertilizers, which are vital for developing countries, as well as petrochemicals. They fear the Iran conflict could create the largest energy crisis in history.
The US imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports to cut off Tehran’s oil export revenues. In return, Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping if the US ends its blockade.
It is estimated that about 33% to 45% of the Iranian government’s revenue comes from oil and gas sales. Ever since the US imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, exports have declined significantly.
impact on oil production
The US naval blockade has gradually restricted Iranian oil exports, says Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at the data firm Kpler, in an interview with DW. Shipments have declined significantly, while inventories have increased.
Fallakshahi says Iran is forced to keep its oil in storage until enough empty oil tankers become available and can leave the Persian Gulf.
This has forced Iran to reduce its oil production – a move that was already necessary due to sanctions imposed on Tehran. Other countries in the region, such as Iraq, are also being forced to reduce their oil production due to shipping restrictions.
Energy expert Dalgah Chatinoglu says Iranian oil production could fall by about 1 million barrels per day within a month, bringing it closer to domestic consumption levels. At the same time, Iran still has about 170 million barrels of oil on tankers that had already left the Strait of Hormuz before the blockade, meaning it can still expect to generate some oil revenue over the next two to three months, Chatinoglu told DW.
So far, Iran appears to be able to withstand the US naval blockade. However, a long-term suspension of oil production could cause irreparable damage, as wells may need to be shut down. According to Chatinoglu, unproductive wells risk permanent damage due to disrupted flow. Whether this happens or not depends largely on the duration and intensity of the US blockade.
increasing economic pressure
Economic pressure is mounting on Iran as the government struggles to meet domestic obligations, including paying security and military personnel. This situation has been further complicated by years of economic mismanagement, corruption, and international sanctions. Iran’s average inflation rate was estimated at 51% last year, with projections for 2026 expected to rise to around 69%.
An extended blockade will deepen these economic problems. However, Iran expert Fatemeh Aman says, “Maintaining a long-term blockade requires considerable military resources, is based on an unstable legal foundation and involves political risks.”
Aman says a prolonged ban on maritime traffic could also harm other countries, increase tensions in the Persian Gulf and impact global trade, above all Asian economies that are heavily dependent on energy imports from the region.
“This raises questions about whether pressure from Washington can still be controlled or whether it is creating unintended problems.”
Additional reporting by Morad Rahmati. This article was originally written in German.