When Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his government coalition of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) took office on May 6, 2025, voters’ expectations could not have been higher.
Economic reform was to be the top priority. Within a few months, citizens will feel that Germany is on the move, the Chancellor promised in his first policy statement, while also raising the possibility of major reforms to be carried out in the autumn of that year.
After a year in office, the Chancellor was forced to admit that a country like Germany could not be moved in a new direction within just a few months. His centrist coalition has been plagued by conflict and the difficult search for compromise has slowed it down more than expected. The economy is failing to pick up pace. There is disappointment with the government’s performance throughout the country.
AfD is on the rise
Overall, 86% of respondents to pollster Infratest Dimap’s latest ARD-DeutschlandTrend survey say they are dissatisfied with the government. The pollster conducted a representative survey of 1,303 eligible German voters between May 4 and May 6, 2026. This level of dissatisfaction is a record: Never before in the history of “Deutschlandtrend” – which has been held every month since 1997 – has a federal government been given such a negative rating after one year in office.
Only 44% of respondents believe Merz’s government should remain in office until the next general election in 2029. But what if new elections are held early?
According to the Deutschlandtrend poll, the ruling coalition will lose its majority. For the first time, there is a clear majority in support of Alternative for Germany (AfD) – a party whose many regional chapters are classified as right-wing. At 27% nationwide, it has reached a new record high.
Compared to April, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc lost two percentage points, falling 24% to second place. The SPD remains at 12%, the socialist Left Party remains at 10% and the environmentalist Greens improved slightly to 15%. The Sahara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the business-oriented Free Democrats (FDP) are polling below the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
The AfD performs even more strongly in regional elections in the eastern federal state of Saxony-Anhalt. A new state parliament is due to be elected there this September, and the AfD is currently receiving 41% of the vote, just 26% more than the incumbent CDU.
Can the disease bring about change?
Chancellor Merz sees no alternative to a coalition with the SPD. But tough conversations lie ahead. After the presentation of a draft bill for health care reform in April, the next task is to reform the pension system, which is to be discussed before the summer recess.
By the end of the year, a major income tax reform is to be drafted, aimed primarily at providing relief to low and middle income earners. However, it is still unclear how to finance such cuts. The SPD advocates higher taxes on the rich, which the union rejects.
The economy, social security issues and curbing irregular immigration are at the top of voters’ agenda. Yet, according to the Deutschlandtrend survey, they have less confidence that the government can make much progress in these areas.
While in June 2025, more than half of respondents still trusted the new Conservative-led government to boost the economy, that figure has now fallen to just 25%.
impact of geopolitics
In an interview marking the first anniversary of his administration, Merz argued that no chancellor before him had faced such difficult circumstances as him. He argued that, in light of global crises and wars, the world currently finds itself in a historic state of emergency.
However, voters are unwilling to accept these challenging circumstances as an excuse for the government’s performance: six in 10 respondents consider the government’s actions inadequate.
Only 16% of those surveyed said they were “somewhat satisfied” with Chancellor Merz – the lowest approval rating ever recorded for a chancellor. Eight out of 10 people criticize his communication style.
Finally, a look at two aspects of foreign and security policy. The German Navy is deploying two of its ships in the Mediterranean Sea. The minesweeper Fulda has departed from Kiel, and the supply ship Mosel, currently operating in the Aegean Sea, is being prepared for possible deployment.
Should an international naval mission be launched in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran after the end of hostilities, these ships are intended to be ready for action at short notice. According to the Deutschlandtrend poll, one in two respondents believe it is right for the Navy to participate in such a mission.
Although relations between US President Donald Trump and Chancellor Friedrich Merz initially appeared quite cordial, distinct differences have emerged recently.
German voters support Merz in standing his ground and emphasizing his point of view. Across the political spectrum, the consensus is that the German government should stick to its positions – even if doing so risks antagonizing Trump. Only one in five respondents support a more restrained approach by Germany in foreign policy disputes, aiming to avoid any provocations by Donald Trump.
This article was translated from German.