According to Glassnode data, it is important for bitcoin not to lose the $76,900 level.
Warsh’s first words at the helm of the FED will impact the markets in the short term.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) fell this morning, May 17, 2026, below $78,000which raises doubts about the continuity of the upward trend that the digital currency seemed to be having since the beginning of April.
The following graph shows how the price of bitcoin has moved over the last 7 days:
The trigger for the recent bearish movement is the lack of progress in diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. Fortune reported yesterday that “Iran has declared that transit through the strategic Strait of Hormuz will resume once the conflict with the United States and Israel ends, but the parties are no closer to resolving their differences or finding a way to do so.”
Let us remember that, as CriptoNoticias has explained, the Strait of Hormuz is a key maritime passage for the oil industry worldwide. A fifth of oil production passes through it.
The fact that the Strait of Hormuz has been partially closed since February 28 causes the price of oil to increase and, as a consequence, increases inflation worldwide (which reduces the probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates).
In the week that just ended, US President Donald Trump returned from a two-day summit with Iran’s ally, Chinese President Xi Jinpingwhere both agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should be open, but no apparent progress was made toward that goal.
What on-chain data shows about the price of bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price decline to $78,000 positions it near critical short-term support. The on-chain data analyzed by Glassnode establishes that the price realized by age for buyers in the last 30 days is located in the USD 76,900. A break below this threshold would put recent holders at direct losses.increasing the latent risk of panic sales.
Market analysts such as Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the 21-period moving average operated as fundamental support to sustain a continued bullish projection towards $90,000. However, diplomatic paralysis interrupted the trend and temporarily invalidated the most optimistic stock price targets.
Glassnode detailed that, despite the positive flow in bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the positive volume delta in Coinbase, new capital is insufficient. The 30-Day Net Change in Realized Capital Position registers USD 2.8 billion monthly, compared to USD 10 billion in previous bullish cycles. The technical diagnosis reflects market uncertainty.
The macroeconomic scenario makes bitcoin’s recovery difficult in the medium term. High inflation rates in the United States reduce the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (FED) will implement interest rate cuts in the short term, keeping Treasury yields elevated.
The focus shifts to Monday, May 18, the date on which Kevin Warsh will offer his first official statements as president of the Federal Reserve.
Investors await definitions on monetary policy. His first comments at the helm of the financial organization could define whether bitcoin breaks current supports or begins a new recovery.