There is more than 50% chance that bitcoin will fall below $61,000, says Plan B.
On social networks, Plan B receives criticism for the mistakes of stock-to-flow.
Plan B, the Dutch analyst known for creating the model stock-to-flow (S2F), considers that bitcoin (BTC) has not yet reached the minimum of this cycle.
“The market is 50/50 on whether February’s $60,000 was the bottom or whether the bear market will continue,” wrote on social network X this June 1, 2026.
According to the analyst, current data suggests that the bottom has not yet formed. “There is a greater than 50% chance that we go lower, below the 200-week moving average ($61,000) or the realized price ($53,000),” he said.
To support his thesis, Plan B shared a chart that combines several historical metrics of the Bitcoin network.
As seen in the image above, the chart brings together several metrics that Plan B uses to evaluate whether bitcoin has already found a bottom or if it could still deepen its decline.
The gray line shows the realized price (realized price), an on-chain metric that calculates the average price at which all BTC in circulation last moved. At the moment It is located near $53,000 and works as one of the bearish references indicated by the analyst.
The black line, meanwhile, represents the 200-week weighted moving average, located near $61,000. This indicator It is often used to identify long-term support zones in bitcoin.
Therefore, when Plan B suggests that the price could fall below $61,000 or even approach $53,000, refers to these two technical and on-chain levelsnot to the long-term projection of the stock-to-flow model.
The dotted line corresponds to the stock-to-flow model for the cycle between the halving in 2024 and the next one scheduled for 2028. The halving is the scheduled event in Bitcoin that reduces by half the reward that miners receive for validating blocks. This mechanism progressively reduces the issuance of new BTC and reinforces its scarcity, as explained by CriptoNoticias.
Precisely, stock-to-flow tries to estimate the value of BTC from this programmed shortage. The model relates the number of existing currencies to the speed at which new units are issued and, in this version, projects an average price close to $500,000 for the current halving cycle. It goes without saying that this estimate contrasts with the current price of BTC, which is still very far from those levels. This puts the predictive capacity of the model under discussion.
Finally, the colored dots represent the percentage of BTC that is in profits. The red and orange tones indicate that more than 90% of the currencies are in profit, a situation that has historically coincided with phases of euphoria and market tops. Blue tones, on the other hand, reflect periods in which a smaller proportion of investors maintain profits, something common during bear markets or stages of capitulation.
It is worth noting that Plan B’s analysis comes at a delicate time for BTC, which remains below $72,000 and continues to operate in an unfavorable context for assets considered risky.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz maintain uncertainty in global markets, as explained by CriptoNoticias. This maritime route is key for the global transport of oil and Its interruption raises concerns about energy supply, rising logistics costs and new inflationary pressures.
When inflation remains high, central banks typically have less room to reduce interest rates.
Criticisms of the stock-to-flow model
This analysis of Plan B has generated many questions among some social media users.
One of the most repeated criticisms is that the analyst maintained a markedly bullish view when bitcoin was trading near its all-time highs and now adopts a bearish stance after a significant drop in price.
«You confuse me. You were extremely bullish at $125,000. We are now at $73,000 and you are very bearish. “What changed?” wrote the user GeoOnChainz.
For his part, the user identified as TheNikxx remembered one of the model’s previous mistakes: “S2F predicted an average of $135,000 in the halving window of 2022. Bitcoin reached $15,000.” In that sense, pointed out against the chart’s current projection, noting that “the same model continues to project $500,000” while the market remains far from that level.
There were also those who questioned the usefulness of continuing to use the model despite its mistakes. “How many times does a model have to be wrong before you stop using it completely?” asked the user NotAlex.
Even so, Plan B’s current position coincides with that of other analysts who in recent days have warned about the possibility of new declines for bitcoin. Among them are Willy Woo, Crypto Rover and Michaël van de Poppe, who, with different nuances, consider that The market could still go through an additional phase of correction before finding a final bottom.