Bitcoin (BTC) is going through one of the most complex and adverse scenarios so far in 2026. As of June 3, its price fell below $66,000.
The pressure on the price does not respond to a single reason, but to an accumulation of events that deteriorated market sentiment. As CriptoNoticias has reported, these factors include the war between the United States and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the new tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the tariffs promoted by Donald Trump and the recent sale of 32 BTC carried out by Strategy.
Despite this context, historical data shows that holding bitcoin for four years continues to leave positive returns.
In the BTC market there is a «mantra» often repeated among long-term investors: whoever bought BTC and held it for “four years or more” never lost money. The current fall forces us to qualify that phrase. The part of the exact four years is still valid in the windows analyzed, but the “or more” no longer applies universally.
On June 3, 2022, the digital asset was trading near $30,000. Four years later, the asset is trading at $65,820, which represents a gain of 119.4% for those who bought at that time and maintained their position until today.
Even during the weakest time of the year, the rule was not broken. On February 6, 2026, BTC traded near $59,820, its lowest level of the year. For those who had purchased on February 6, 2022, when BTC was trading around $42,000, the investment still showed a gain of approximately 42%.
This behavior is not an isolated event. As seen in the image above, BTC went through multiple bullish and bearish cycles since 2012. During that period suffered collapses of more than 70%, crises within the industry and macroeconomic events that questioned its viability.
These include the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014, which caused a drop of more than 80%; the global collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020; and the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange in 2022, considered one of the biggest crises in the history of the digital asset sector.
However, taking June as the reference month, holding BTC for four years would never have generated losses so far.
For example, Whoever bought BTC in June 2012 and held the position until June 2016 obtained a return of more than 4,000%.
Between June 2013 and June 2017, BTC went from trading close to $100 to above $2,000, an appreciation of more than 1,900%.
The same logic was repeated between June 2014 and June 2018, period that included one of the most severe bear markets in digital currency history. Still, BTC went from the $600 area to over $6,000.
Between June 2017 and June 2021, BTC advanced from around $2,500 to over $35,000, a gain of nearly 1,300%.
Later periods show the same pattern. Those who purchased in June 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 or 2022 and They maintained their positions for four years and continued to make profits.
Something broke…
However, the current decline does force us to clarify this idea better. The rule still works when looking at exact four-year windows, but not necessarily for longer periods.
For example, whoever bought bitcoin at its all-time high of $68,789, recorded on November 10, 2021, is still at a loss. With BTC currently trading near $65,825, that reversal shows an approximate drop of 4.3%.
This is not happening for the first time. In February 2026, when BTC fell below $60,000, those who had bought at the November 2021 high were also in negative territory.
Therefore, the data shows that holding bitcoin for four years has left profits so far, but that does not mean that any investor who has held BTC for more than four years is necessarily in positive territory.
The difference is in the time horizon
It should be noted that this does not mean that bitcoin never generates losses. Those who bought near historical highs, As happened in November 2021, they went through long periods with negative returns.
In some cases, Investors remained underwater for more than two years before recovering their positions.
The difference is in the time horizon. The so-called “four-year rule” does not seek to avoid volatility, but rather to go through it.
However, this does not imply that the statistic will remain the same forever. The fact that BTC has made gains in all four-year windows observed so far does not guarantee that it will happen again in the future.
What can be stated is that, so far, The current correction has not been enough to break this trend.