Russia and Saudi Arabia produce 9–10 million barrels of oil each day. Overall, they account for more than 20% of total world oil production.
This gives them significant control over supplies despite disruptions caused by Western sanctions and price limits on Russian oil following the war in Ukraine and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC minus one important member
As the largest member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia has long dominated the formal alliance and worked to keep oil prices stable by controlling supply.
Before the war in Iran began, OPEC countries – Iran is a member – produced more than 35% of the world’s crude oil and had about 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
Yet, over the years, the group’s power has diminished due to internal divisions and the massive increase in US shale oil production.
In April, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), then OPEC’s third-largest producer, announced it would leave the group on May 1 after nearly six decades, reducing OPEC’s membership to 11 countries.
The oil-rich country, which has significant spare capacity and was unhappy with the quotas, could increase production once the Strait of Hormuz opens.
Looking for alliances to stay relevant
It is not the first time a member has left OPEC – or rejoined – but the UAE has offered production flexibility and its exit would weaken the cartel’s pricing power in the long run.
Perhaps in this hope, Saudi Arabia is coming closer to Russia, which is not a member of OPEC. The countries are doing this both directly and through a more informal alliance called OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and additional oil-producing countries, and was created in 2016.
But currently, it is Russia and other non-Gulf petroleum exporters who are benefiting, as Iran effectively blocks the Strait of Hormuz, says Mark N. Katz, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank based in Washington, DC.
“Western and other buyers are willing to increase their purchases of sanctioned Russian oil to prevent a dramatic rise in oil prices that would hurt their domestic economies,” said Katz, who has tracked Moscow’s relations with the Middle East since the early 1980s.
St. Petersburg Economic Forum
Among industry analysts and political observers, it has not gone unnoticed that the pair are working more closely than ever. Over the past two years, the countries’ energy ministers have repeatedly coordinated on oil production.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Riyadh in 2019 and in late 2023, when he met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Separately, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has met his Saudi counterpart several times over the past few years.
To underline this new working relationship, Russia has now named Saudi Arabia as its guest country at this year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to be held on June 3-6, 2026.
“It is highly symbolic that Saudi Arabia will serve as the guest country at SPIEF in 2026 as we celebrate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations,” Lavrov said ahead of the event.
Although some in the West see the meeting as a Russian propaganda event, it brings together businesses and political leaders. According to organizers, last year the event was attended by 24,200 people from 144 countries and territories.
Looking beyond oil and OPEC
With slowing global growth and the rise of renewable energy, there is a lot to discuss. Just over a decade ago, Saudi Arabia came up with a program called “Vision 2030” to diversify its economy and make it less dependent on oil.
As part of this approach, it has floated ideas such as hosting major sporting events, mining gold, copper and zinc, building huge AI data centres, or focusing on international tourism beyond pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina.
In contrast, Russia suffers from Western sanctions, relies heavily on a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and sells most of its oil at discounted prices. Its failing economy no longer offers the investment opportunities it once did.
“I don’t think the Saudis currently see Russia as an attractive country for investment,” Katz said. “The West, China and other Asian countries offer far better opportunities for cooperation on infrastructure, technology and finance.”
Even with the troubles within OPEC, this would be welcomed by Donald Trump.
Katz said that while the US has sought partnerships with Moscow, it is not eager to do the same with its allies. “The Trump administration will view any waning Saudi enthusiasm for doing business with Russia as an opportunity for U.S. business.”
Remaining friends amid changing alliances
For now, it looks like the Russia-Saudi alliance will focus on oil. And both will be heartened by the fact that global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.5 million barrels per day next year, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report.
Still, with a lot going on in the background, it may not be easy for this pair to move forward.
Saudi Arabia is unhappy with Russia’s support to Iran. At the same time, Russia wants to ensure that Riyadh does not get involved in the West’s Ukraine-related sanctions regime.
When it comes to oil, Saudi Arabia also has long-term goals and is interested in preventing a supply glut that could drive down prices. Russia has a more short-term need to replenish its coffers.
Finally, Katz would not be surprised if Saudi Arabia’s growing cooperation with Russia is actually a desire to get more attention from Washington. It’s an approach Riyadh has tried “repeatedly since at least the 1970s,” he said.
Edited by: Andreas Becker