The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with a ceasefire in Iran becoming more difficult as all sides are issuing threats and exchanging fire.
On Monday, the US blamed Iran for the crash of an attack helicopter near Oman and launched strikes against Iranian targets. The strike continues on Tuesday also. Iran has responded with attacks on US sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.
But this conflict is not limited to America and Iran. Despite an apparent ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Israeli forces attacked targets in Beirut’s suburbs over the weekend after new Hezbollah rocket attacks. Shortly thereafter, Tehran responded with missile attacks on Israeli territory. In return, Israel responded with attacks on targets in Iran.
The ongoing fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has disrupted US President Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate a deal with Tehran to end the conflict.
Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon, is an Iran-backed Shia militant group designated as a terrorist organization by Western states, Israel, the Gulf Arab states and the Arab League.
Iran’s Middle East strategy under pressure
“From Iran’s perspective, a major priority currently is to ensure that Hezbollah is included in any potential political settlement and peace talks,” said Arman Mahmoodian, a Middle East expert at the University of South Florida. Any agreement will require mutual concessions.
However, it is important for Tehran that Hezbollah does not become a bargaining chip. For Iran, the issue is its regional influence.
Mahmoodian said that if Hezbollah “continues to come under Israeli fire as well as give the impression that Tehran is abandoning it, it could have significant consequences for Iran and undermine the confidence of other actors in the region allied with Iran – such as the Houthis in Yemen or Shia militias in Iraq.”
“Ultimately, Hezbollah became involved in this conflict primarily out of loyalty to Iran and attacked Israel after Khamenei’s assassination,” Mahmoodian said.
Following the outbreak of the Iran-Iran war on February 28 and the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an Israeli airstrike on Tehran, the Lebanese Hezbollah militia fired rockets at Israel, prompting Iran’s entry into the war.
Israel launched airstrikes on the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut and other parts of its northern neighbor, causing the war to spread to Lebanon. The Israeli army has also captured a strip of land in southern Lebanon, creating a “security zone” from where it says Hezbollah launches attacks on Israeli cities.
According to Lebanese health officials, about 3,600 Lebanese civilians have been killed since hostilities began more than 100 days ago.
Hezbollah as a multifunctional organization
The Shia militia Hezbollah emerged in the early 1980s during the Lebanese Civil War and following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. In addition to Sunnis (about 32%), Lebanon is home to about 31% Shias, as well as several Christian communities, Druze and Alawites.
Shia Iran played a decisive role in the establishment of Hezbollah after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and supported the organization economically, militarily, and ideologically.
The movement has an armed wing, but is also represented as a political party in the Lebanese parliament and operates social institutions. Germany, the US and several other countries classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization in whole or in part. Its activities have been banned in Germany since 2020.
At the same time, Hezbollah is considered very weak today. Israeli military attacks since the October 7 terrorist attacks in 2023 at the hands of Hamas, another Iran-backed terrorist group, have weakened its military capabilities and killed many of its leaders.
Nevertheless, the organization has been able to rebuild its structures, at least partially, despite heavy losses, as was the case after the 2006 Lebanon War.
The rising costs of conflict with Israel
Hezbollah has been a central pillar of Iran’s regional strategy for decades. Iran expert Arash Azizi describes this approach as “forward defense”. Under this strategy, Iran wants to block potential threats through allied elements as far away from its territory as possible, he said.
However, this strategy has partially backfired. Today, Iran finds itself forced to actively defend its allies, even at the cost of direct attacks on Israel as well as retaliatory attacks on its own territory and infrastructure.
According to Azizi, the new Iranian leadership is attempting to justify its support for Hezbollah on the basis of national security interests rather than ideological arguments.
“Nevertheless, the argument is that Iran, as a state that sees itself in conflict with Israel, cannot simply abandon its regional allies,” he told DW.
At the same time, the costs of further confrontation with Israel are significant for Iran. The economic damage caused by the war is substantial as living conditions have worsened for many people and economic prospects remain difficult.
“The new leadership will therefore have to address not only security and foreign policy challenges, but also answer the question of what vision it can offer the Iranian people for the future,” Azizi said.
The report was originally written in German.