Voters in Sao Tome and Principe will elect a new president on Sunday, ahead of parliamentary elections in late September. For the island nation of just 245,000 people, the election is a major domestic political event. They are also attracting increasing international attention.
Since the signing of a military cooperation agreement with Russia in April 2024, the archipelago in the Gulf of Guinea has attracted renewed geopolitical interest.
The main question is whether Russia seeks to expand its influence in the South Atlantic through the archipelago – or whether the military agreement is largely symbolic, with Sao Tome and Principe merely continuing its long-term foreign policy of maintaining relations with a wide range of international partners.
Sao Tome and Principe: more strategic than its size
The former Portuguese colony off the coast of Gabon and Equatorial Guinea celebrated its 51st independence anniversary on July 12. Although Sao Tome and Principe is one of the smallest countries in Africa in terms of both area and population, its location gives it strategic importance far beyond its size.
The archipelago is located on the equator in the Gulf of Guinea, an area that is traversed by major international shipping lanes and is home to significant oil and gas reserves. Additionally, piracy, organized crime, and the protection of maritime trade routes have turned the Gulf of Guinea into a major security hub.
“Sao Tome and Principe is a small country, but it has huge strategic importance because of its geographical location in the Gulf of Guinea,” former Foreign Minister Elsa Pinto told DW.
“Major commercial and military routes pass through our waters. Even during the colonial era, our archipelago was of great importance due to its location between Africa and South America.”
Pinto said the country’s location has been a strategic asset for centuries.
“Sao Tome was first a major center of sugar production, later the world’s largest cocoa producer, and also an important center of the trans-Atlantic slave trade. That geo-strategic importance has never waned.”
A military agreement with geopolitical implications
Sao Tome and Principe attracted international attention in the spring of 2024 when it emerged that the government had signed an open-ended military cooperation agreement with Russia.
According to Russian officials, the agreement includes military training, technical assistance, cooperation on weapons and military equipment, intelligence sharing, and reciprocal visits by naval ships and military aircraft. A separate agreement was also signed between the Interior Ministry of Russia and the National Police Force of Sao Tome and Principe.
The agreement, reached amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, was closely watched in Europe and the United States. Portugal and the United States have long been among Sao Tome and Principe’s most important security and development partners.
Then-Prime Minister Patrice Trovoda defended the deal.
He said at the time, “We are an independent and sovereign country. No one can tell us how we should behave with Russia.”
‘Timing was the real issue’ in Russia deal
Political analyst Arzemiro dos Prazeres, a former politician and Speaker of the Parliament, believes that the importance of the agreement has often been exaggerated.
“The agreement between Russia and Sao Tome and Principe has been largely ineffective,” he told DW. “It was signed, but never implemented. Nothing was really put into practice.”
For this reason, he believes much of the international criticism was misplaced.
“I agree with former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoda. This is a perfectly normal military agreement, like the ones Sao Tome and Principe have signed with the EU, Brazil, Angola or Portugal. The real issue was the timing of the agreement, which caused a lot of controversy.”
Russia has significantly expanded its military and security presence in many African countries in recent years. But unlike Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger or the Central African Republic – where Moscow has focused security operations – Sao Tome and Principe’s importance lies primarily in its strategic location in the Atlantic.
balancing partnership
Elsa Pinto rejects suggestions that her country is moving away from the West.
“São Tome and Principe wants to maintain good relations with all countries – the United States, Europe, Russia and China.”
He said the country’s foreign policy is based on the principles of non-intervention and the African Union and the United Nations.
“We will not abandon our values and principles. Our international partnerships are, above all, about supporting our country’s development,” he said.
For this reason, he does not expect the elections to lead to any major changes in foreign policy.
“Very little will change. Sao Tome and Principe will continue to cooperate with both Western and Eastern partners,” Pinto said.
This approach reflects the country’s diplomatic development. After independence in 1975, Sao Tome and Principe initially aligned itself with the Soviet Union under the Marxist system. Following the introduction of multi-party democracy in the early 1990s, it gradually strengthened ties with Western partners while maintaining ties with many countries.
Incumbent Carlos Vila Nova was strongly favored to win
Four candidates are running in the presidential election, but observers consider incumbent Carlos Vila Nova to be the clear frontrunner after former Prime Minister Jorge Baum Jesus withdrew from the race, citing a “flood of criminal lies” and an atmosphere of “division and political tension” around his candidacy, according to news outlet RFI.
Vila Nova has campaigned on a message of political stability and national unity. Meanwhile, his challengers have called for generational change in politics and more open debate about the country’s future.
Political analyst Arzemiro dos Prazeres believes that Vila Nova is a strong contender for victory.
“So I hope the election will be decided in the first round, making a runoff unnecessary,” he said.
Under São Tomé and Príncipe’s semi-presidential system, the President holds significant constitutional powers, including appointing the Prime Minister, vetoing legislation, dissolving Parliament, and acting as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
The European Union is once again deploying an election observation mission. Its chief observer, Portuguese Member of the European Parliament Sérgio Humberto, said the mission aimed to help ensure a transparent and peaceful electoral process.
A small nation amidst great power rivalry
Whether the military agreement with Russia represents a genuine change in foreign policy or merely reflects São Tomé and Príncipe’s pragmatic attempt to diversify its international partnerships remains debated. However, one thing is clear: international interest in the country is growing.
For Sao Tome and Principe, the priority is to secure investment, development assistance and security cooperation with as many partners as possible.
Russia sees the archipelago as an opportunity to expand its presence in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Europe and the United States consider the country a relatively stable democratic partner in the strategically important region.
That is why the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections are more important than domestic politics. This is happening at a time when even the smallest states of the world are becoming arenas of competition between big powers.
For Sao Tome and Principe, the challenge will be to preserve its carefully balanced foreign policy – and with it, its room for diplomatic maneuver.
This article was originally written in German.