Fifteen months after a Hamas-led terrorist attack on southern Israel triggered an unprecedented Israeli bombing and ground campaign that devastated Gaza, a way out of the conflict appears to be on the way. The humanitarian cost has been devastating: according to local officials, the Palestinian death toll is close to 45,000; More than 1,000 Israeli deaths in the October 7, 2023 attack.
The EU watched from the sidelines as the US, Egypt and Qatar brokered a three-phase ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that could come into force on Sunday, allowing the release of 33 Israeli hostages in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. Can be released.
The world held its breath as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised questions at the last moment over the finalization of the agreement.
The EU’s 27 countries, which had been occupied by internal divisions and had limited diplomatic influence, can now play an important role.
The European Commission in Brussels on Thursday praised the brokering countries and welcomed the agreement.
“The EU stands ready to support the implementation of the ceasefire,” EU foreign affairs spokesman Anouar al-Anouni told reporters at a briefing.
The EU’s executive branch announced that its 2025 humanitarian aid package for Gaza would amount to €120 million, covering food, water, shelter and health care. “We know the situation there is terrible,” spokeswoman Eva Hruncirova said.
Nearly 90% of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.3 million has been displaced amid continued Israeli attacks, many forced to live in tents after their homes were reduced to rubble. Late last year, the United Nations, citing estimates from the IPC global food security initiative, said more than 1.8 million people were suffering from extreme hunger.
Israel is still imposing heavy restrictions on aid deliveries, although much more should be allowed in the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, which would also begin the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
EU could help monitor Rafah crossing
In addition to short-term humanitarian assistance, the EU is also ready to help Gaza rebuild in the longer term. Last April, the United Nations, the European Union and the World Bank estimated that Gazan infrastructure had suffered $18.5 billion in damage in the first four months of the war alone.
On Thursday, the EU signaled that it is ready to work with international partners, especially Gulf countries, when the time comes. “Now we need to see what will happen in the future,” El-Anouni said.
El-Anouni said the EU was already considering reactivating its long-dormant monitoring mission at the currently closed Rafah crossing on the Egypt-Gazan border. “This is subject to the full consent of both parties and the decision of EU member states,” he stressed.
Gaza’s political future unclear
But before any serious reconstruction can begin, a viable plan for Gaza’s political and security governance must be drawn up, Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told DW on Thursday.
He stressed, “In itself, the ceasefire agreement, although an important first step, is not enough, and it will easily collapse unless there is a comprehensive political path to support it.”
Israel’s stated goal in the war was to eliminate Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007 when it won elections and ousted its political rival Fatah, the dominant political party in the then-ruling Palestinian Authority (PA). The area has been under Israeli blockade since then. Israel also occupied Gaza from 1967 to 2005.
The Palestinian Authority, which partially controls the West Bank, is the Palestinian negotiator chosen by Israel’s Western partners, despite some recent concerns about its democratic credentials.
According to the ECFR, the success of any stabilization plan for Gaza will depend on the return of a revitalized PA. According to Lovatt, the EU could use its leverage as a major financial backer of the authority to shape negotiations going forward.
What about Trump?
Another important question is how much the EU will be able to influence developments after the ceasefire if Netanyahu is beholden to far-right radicals in his government and US President-elect Donald Trump is about to return to the White House.
Trump is a close supporter of Israel, and figures in his incoming administration have expressed support for the more extreme nationalist positions of the current Israeli government, for example in favor of more settlements deemed illegal by the European Union and the United Nations.
According to Lovat, whether the new President listens to these voices remains to be seen and there is room for action for the EU.
“Trump is not a man of particulars. I think it’s fair to say that he wants to be able to say that he has ended the war in Gaza.” But beyond that, his position on Gaza’s future is not yet clear.
“European governments working in partnership with Arab countries, particularly Arab Gulf states, should engage positively with the Trump administration,” Lovett said. “The challenge for the EU is to put its slogans into practice.”
Edited by: Anne Thomas