What will happen to bitcoin in October?

There is one day left until October begins. This is, along with February, one of the most historically bullish months for the price of bitcoin (BTC).

Since 2013, bitcoin closed 9 Octobers with positive returns and only 2 slightly negative Octobers.

The following graph, taken from the platform CoinGlassallows us to observe this historical behavior of the BTC price:

Due to these statistical issues, many refer to October as ‘uptober‘. This is a play on words in English that can be translated as “bullish October.”

As CriptoNoticias reported, the investors seem to be anticipating that bitcoin will rise price during the month that is about to begin and that has driven the accumulation. Nobody wants to miss the party.

An example of this behavior is the movement of money to and from bitcoin ETFs, financial products that especially attract large institutional and corporate investors.

The next graphicprovided by SoSoValue, shows that bitcoin ETFs that are traded in the US market They had 7 consecutive days of positive money flows (this means that, day by day, more money came in than went out):

5 reasons that will drive the rise of bitcoin

Up to this point it is clear that market expectations are positive and high for bitcoin. It seems, in general, that a large price increase is anticipated for the digital currency. But… Will this be what will finally happen?

The thesis of the person writing this column is that this will be the case. Bitcoin has more than enough reasons to seek new heights in the month ahead and, perhaps, reach new all-time highs (which may possibly be surpassed in the following months).

First of all, the market expectations and the statistical issues about the “green” Octobers are not something minor. These can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. If everyone believes that October will be a positive month for bitcoin, then they will act accordingly by accumulating BTC and this – by simple law of supply and demand – will be bullish for its price.

As a second point, it should be taken into account that October marks six months since the halving of Bitcoin that took place in April 2024. It is usually six months after each halving when the price of the digital currency enters a strong upward trend that leads it to set new records in its price. If history repeats itself, in October 2024 bitcoin would break out of the sideways (and slightly bearish) trend in which it has been trapped since March, as can be seen in the chart below:

Thirdly, the lower interest rates in large financial and economic powers such as the United States or China are a driver for volatile assets. When interest rates fall, government bonds (largely considered safe investments) become unattractive and investors go into the “risk” market in search of higher returns. In this context, bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and stock stocks tend to benefit.

Furthermore, one cannot fail to consider the fact that Globally there seems to be a crisis situation in the making.. CriptoNoticias has released opinions from analysts that show that the economy is not doing well at all and there are various sources of crisis that could have global repercussions. Deflation in China, for example, or the (unofficially announced) recession in the United States could have negative consequences for the global economy. In this context, safe haven assets such as gold and bitcoin would stand out. Even more so when both are showing high correlation in recent weeks.

Finally, let us mention that In November there will be the presidential elections in the United States. Although Donald Trump initially differentiated himself as the bitcoiner (or, at least, pro-cryptocurrency) candidate, now also his main contender, Kamala Harris, seeks to show himself as someone who will favor the cryptocurrency industry. For Geoff Kendrick, head of research at Standard Chartered bank, bitcoin will end the year at an all-time high no matter who wins. Investors could, from now on, be positioning themselves in bitcoin to get ahead of price increases. That will cause a bullish October.

Bitcoin must break the bearish trend

From the point of view of technical analysis, The price of bitcoin is still in a slight—but prolonged—downtrend.. The digital asset should break out, with enough volume, the resistance zone in which it is trapped (blue line in the chart below).

If bitcoin were to overcome strongly and manage to stay above $68,000, investors will remain calm, knowing that now that area would become support and bitcoin would trade above that price. If that were to happen, bitcoin would be enabled to seek new all-time highs above $74,000.

As CriptoNoticias has shown weeks ago, what is happening with the price of the asset corresponds to a “cup with handle” pattern, which is mainly interpreted as a bullish formation. Thus, bitcoin would go—according to that indicator—to prices around $125,000, at least, in this cycle.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of CriptoNoticias. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.