The activity in the Solana Red entered a cooling phase, compared to the boom he experienced in early 2025.
This deceleration, reflected in the fall in the volume negotiated both in futures and the cash, as well as in the decrease in the total blockade (TVL) of the network, does not necessarily indicate weakness. In fact, It could be the prelude to a new impulse.
But, let’s see what this cooling is about. To do this, what better to observe The bubble map which Burak Kesmeci, cryptocurrency analyst of the firm Cryptoquant. In the graph you can see the total negotiated volume of Solana (Sun) in Exchanges.
The size of each bubble indicates the volume operated in cash, while the colors reflect the speed with which that volume is changing. Green represents cooling, that is, the volume is decreasing, while gray means that there are no significant changes.
The red color, meanwhile, is a sign of a strong increase in volume, and the most intense red represents a sharp jump in the negotiation volume.
This same pattern is observed in the futures market, where a cooling signal predominates, with mostly gray and green bubbles. This suggests a slowdown in trading activity, coinciding with a lateral behavior of the price Sun.
Both maps indicate a contrast to the previous period, in which red bubbles were observed, reflecting a market overheating due to an abrupt increase in the volume of operations.
As seen in the previous graphics, the last time the intense red appeared was in January. At that time, The event that shook calm in Solana was the launch of Official Trump (Trump)the official memecoin of the president of the United States. As Cryptoics reported, the Token was launched to the market before its assumption and “broke” the market.
Thanks to Trump’s impulse, the Sun Quotation reached its historical (ATH) of $ 294. At the time of publication of this note, the price of the asset is 157 dollars.
On the other hand, the total blocked value (TVL) of Solana reached its ath of 11,665 million dollars. According to data from Defillcurrently it is located at 8,808 million dollars.
This is an important metric because it allows to measure the value of the assets deposited or blocked in decentralized finance protocols (DEFI).
For some … the storm is coming
Now, although at first glance this cooling stage can indicate the loss of impulse, for Kesmeci It represents a new opportunity because “an important catalyst for the price of sun is coming.”
What is that catalyst? The possible approval of the funds quoted in the stock market (ETF) in the Cash of Sun in the United States. “Therefore, this cooling, both in the market in cash and in the futures, could be a moment of rest before the summer of the sun (will it happen again?), Adds Kesmeci.
As cryptootics reported, the Franklin Templeton, Vaneck, Canary Capital, 21Shares, Wisdomtree and Grayscale companies have submitted their requests to the Bag and Securities Commission (SEC) to launch ETF of Sol and are waiting for an answer.
On June 10, the SEC requested the issuers to send updated versions of their S-1 forms during the next week. Among the required changes are modifications in the treatment of staking, a point on which the regulatory body Now shows a more flexible position for its inclusion in these funds.
In this context, analysts of Bloomberg IntelligenceJames Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, raised the probabilities of approval, arguing that there are already products based on suns.
And now comes the million dollar question: Why can it be the great price catalyst?
Because the launch of ETFs could increase asset exposure among institutional investors, in addition to increasing liquidity in the ecosystem.
However, it must also be clarified that the debut in the ETF market of Sol does not guarantee a price increase. An example to illustrate this is what happened with funds to the cash of Ether (ETH), the Ethereum cryptocurrency, which were launched in July 2024.
As Cryptonotics reported, the performance of these funds was much lower than those of Bitcoin (BTC) and only in the last two weeks the market perceives that there is an “institutional fever” by ETH.
We will have to wait to see if Sol really prepares for a true storm or if he continues to travel for a cooling period.
