When the macroeconomic markets change the crypto -winter.
For other analysts, Bitcoin’s bullish-base cycles would be a thing of the past.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) remains firm above $ 100,000, amid the war conflict between Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, investors await an improvement in macroeconomic conditions so that their price take off at levels never seen before.
In this context, the market analyst Willy Woo put cold cloths to this issue and anticipates that Bitcoin “has entered the final phase of its upward market”. In a post Of X, the specialist clarified that “there is still a tour” for new climbs, so he does not rule out that BTC marks a new historical maximum (ATH) in the short term.
The publication is accompanied by a graph of the Bitcoin Risk Model (Bitcoin risk model, in Spanish), created by Willy Woo himself. The blue line represents the price price of BTC, while the lower yellow line is the on-chain indicator Risk Model.
The metric allows to establish risk levels based on market inputs and outputs. When the indicator is low (about 0), the risk of entering the market is low and usually coincides with accumulation areas.
But, when it is high, it is a sign that they are moments of euphoria and possible overvaluation. This means that many investors are buying at high prices, while large holders begin to take profits, causing a drop in liquidity.
This behavior usually anticipates important corrections and marks what is known as an area of distribution or overheating of the market. As observed, The metric is at levels close to 1although still below its historical maximums, as happened during the euphoria of the Alcista cycle of 2021.
To put it in simple terms, Woo points out that BTC’s risk model is at high levels, although still below its maximumwhich suggests that the currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto would be traveling the final stretch of its upward cycle. Therefore, the specialist affirms that “there is still a route.” In addition, he adds: “We expect a BTC bearish market once global macroeconomic markets change.”
This is because BTC is still considered by many investors as a risk asset. That is, financial speculators prefer a stable macroeconomic environment to perform their operations. Otherwise, they will seek refuge in instruments that generate less yields and are less exposed to market fluctuations, such as treasure bonds.
Now, just as Woo projects the arrival of crypto -winter if the macroeconomic context does not accompany, there are other analysts than They argue that BTC’s bull-bajista cycles are things from the past. The reason? Institutional investment.
As cryptootics has reported, more and more companies are issuing debt through shares or convertible bonds to buy BTC without depending on their operational income. This strategy was designed by Michael Saylor, Strategy’s CEO.
The objective of these purchases is not financial speculation, but to build BTC strategic reservations as part of a long -term vision.
Unlike traders, which were previously a majority in the market and quickly reacted to price changes, institutional actors operate with a long -term horizon. This reduces the typical volatility of traditional cycles, in which after a historical maximum a prolonged fall came.
For Adam Livingston, the author of the book The Bitcoin Age, “The price of Bitcoin will be determined in the Strategy Board Hall.” According to his thesis, the sustained accumulation model that Saylor is implementing A deep structural change in the dynamics of supply and demand of BTC.
It is that unlike Bitcoin -contributed in the stock exchange (ETF), which have daily tickets and outputs, Strategy is withdrawing market liquidity. The fact that there is less available offer is a medium and long term bullish factor. This is because Bitcoin has a supply limited to 21 million units, whose broadcast is reduced every four years in an event known as Halving.
For this reason, Livingston argues: “BTC’s next historical maximum will be set during a conversation in Strategy’s boardroom when someone asked: ‘How many coins do we want this quarter?’ And the answer will be: ‘all’. ”
It is worth clarifying that Woo had stated that institutional purchases strengthened the BTC price support. He also stressed that if this trend is maintained, Bitcoin’s price could reach the $ 118,000 line in the short term.
