The fall from $ 111,000 marked a turning point in the market.
There is no overheating, and that is positive for the price of Bitcoin in the future.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC), which has lateralized on the USD 100,000 in the last month, could be a high -risk structure that threatens the continuity of its upward trend.
Because BTC has not been able to stay over the USD 111,000, several indicators suggest that the bullish impulse is decreasingaccording to the firm of analysis of decentralized networks, Glassnode.
For them, the Bitcoin market entered In a risky field, which refers to a clear weakness of the price to cash, as well as cautious derivatives and capital flows of institutions in decline.
Looking more closely, there are off-chain data (outside the chain), which make them understand That BTC’s upward trend is at risk of finishing.
What are this data?
It should be clarified that off-chain data are analysis or data related to activities, events or metrics that occur outside the Bitcoin network. For example, market behavior or futures in centralized and institutional exchanges.
In the field of the cash, which is where BTC is bought and sells for immediate delivery, the so -called “Price momentum “ It is moderate. This is because the relative force index (RSI) has fallen by 14.48%, from 49.4 points to 42.1, which suggests a weaker impulse.
“Historically, values in this range indicate weakness and can precede a rebound of relief or a greater fall. The decrease suggests that short -term feeling remains fragile while the market seeks directional clarity,” they point out from Glassnode.
The RSI is a technical indicator used in Bitcoin’s price analysis To evaluate the strength of price fluctuations and determine whether it is overcompared or oversized.
It also highlights the volume of spot trade, which is at a low level, since it has decreased by 17.9%, after 7.1 billion dollars to 5,840 million dollars, as can be seen below.
The above does nothing but suggest that BTC trading activity has been reduced and that there is a weak participation of investors.
“Such a low volume usually coincides with the indecision of the market or a consolidation phase, where traders doubt capital. Without a rebound in trading activity, price movements can lack conviction, leaving the market more vulnerable to sudden directional changes,” said Glassnode.
This current level of Bitcoin’s spot volume contrasts with what was seen in April, when the indicator tripled in a matter of one week, as reported by cryptoics. At that time, it went from USD 2.9 billion to USD 8,000 million in days.
On the other hand, the future market scenario also gives clear signs that alert investors. For example, the open interest (OI) of the futures fell 3% for USD 37,800 million. This suggests a “lighter position between traders and a possible change towards a feeling of risk aversion,” according to Glassnode.
Another contrast to last April, when the OI of the futures It rose from 36.2 billion to 38.6 billion dollars In 36 hours, as this medium reported.
Likewise, the financing rate, which is at a moderate level, fell to -331,000 dollars approaching a low statistical band that is on the -388,000 dollars.
This change in negative terrain reflects a greater appetite by short exposure and a decrease in the bullish conviction among the traders of perpetual futures. “The imbalance suggests a growing caution, with market participants, positioning themselves defensively in response to macroeconomic uncertainty or the recent exhaustion of prices,” says Glassnode.
On the other hand, in the field of options, the indicators raise the alarms. Specifically in the open interest of the options, which is at a high level, showed a decrease of USD 37,310 million to USD 35,490 million, as seen in the following graph.
This suggests a lighter speculative position, probably driven by the taking of profits or a pause in the activity.
“Without being overcome extremes, the market seems to be consolidated while traders reassess their exhibition. This reduction in participation can reflect a short -term uncertainty rather than a structural change in feeling,” according to Glassnode.
It is a very different behavior from that observed in May, when the IF of Bitcoin’s options reached a record of more than 45,000 million dollars, before correcting an average of USD 36,000 million.
- Bitcoin ETF in the US.
Meanwhile, capital flows to the Bitcoin ETFs, which are at a low level, were drastically reversed from an entry of USD 475 million at an exit of -475 million dollars in a week, as shown in this graph:
This pronounced capital withdrawal It suggests a possible profits or a decrease in institutional demandGlassnode alerts, which also points out that the change indicates a growing caution by the participants of traditional finance, “possibly driven by macroeconomic uncertainty or a risks rotation.”
“The sustained outputs could press the stability of the market in cash unless they are compensated with a renewed purchase interest,” the firm warned.
However, also disagree with the buying pressure that returned to the ETFs in recent days. Last week They entered Almost 1.4 billion to these financial products, and in this one, almost USD 500 million, as seen in the following Sosovalue graph.
On the other hand, the volume of negotiation of the ETFs, which is on moderate terrain, It fell from USD 18.4 billion to USD 14.6 billion. This shows a lower participation in Bitcoin ETF trading, suggesting that institutional participants “are going back in the midst of a quieter market context,” says Glassnode.
“This softing can reflect a phase of consolidation or the lack of strong catalysts, contributing to reduced liquidity and a lower directional conviction,” he added.
Indeed, in recent weeks the negotiation volume has been decreasing in the Bitcoin ETFs, With USD figures 14.4 billion negotiated last weekand just USD 3,000 so far this.
In general, off-chain data suggest that the upward trend needs to be resumed and, for this, a renewed demand of both retail and institutional participants is essentialaccording to Glassnode.
Otherwise, this cooling phase can persist and, potentially, bring with it the end of the Bitcoin upward market.
Chain data: Information that relieves
Despite the anterior panorama, the on-chain data, which derive directly from the Bitcoin network, They bring a little calm.
For example, active addresses fell slightly 0.7%, from 752,088 to 746,530, as seen in the following graph.
This indicates that they are at a moderate level and that There is a stable user base. It is a neutral signal that points to a cautious commitment, where participation persists.
However, it also demonstrates a gradual decrease in active accounts, considering that at the beginning of April at least 1 million Bitcoin addresses were registered in full functioning, as cryptootics reported, a figure that has declined since then.
For its part, the transfer volume adjusted by entities, also at moderate levels, increased 2.4% to USD 9.3 billion. This suggests an improvement in the liquidation activity, possibly driven by rebalancing or capital flow opportunities. The measure points to a “cautiously optimistic tone” in the on-chain demand of Bitcoin, according to Glassnode.
In turn, the total volume of rates, also on moderate terrain, fell 18.3% to USD 429,800. This indicates a lower demand for space in the blocks and points to calmer network conditions.
Indeed, the Bitcoin network has had months of total peace of mind, with his mempool practically empty and without any congestion. This situation is still valid, since only 8 blocks are waiting to be prosecuted at the close of this report, as is appreciate In Mempool.space.
Meanwhile, liquidity indicators also give what to talk about. In the case of market capitalization carried out, which is at moderate levels, it remained stable at 4.8% in the last month. This stability indicates a balanced market where capital is not entering or leaving aggressively.
Likewise, in the supply ratio between Holders in the short and long term, which is on low field, there is an increase of 17.1% to 17.3%. This slight increase suggests a slight rotation towards short -term holdings, possibly reflecting a renewed speculative appetite.
All this shows that even in the middle of a volatile context, where the macroeconomic and geopolitical theme directly affects the off-chain sector of Bitcoin, putting at risk its upward trend, there is still a clear conviction among the participants of the largest decentralized network in the world, of giving the upward market longer.
