The researcher highlights the combined hardware improvement, the correction of errors and algorithms.
It proposes an urgent transition to post-quantic cryptography.
Pierre-Luc, a researcher and quantum computer specialist, stated that there is a “Little five -year -old window” to prevent this technology from being used to compromise the safety of cryptographic systems.
The analyst, who is also CEO and co-founder of the company Pauli Group, dedicated to the development of post-quantic cryptography, said on June 17 that “the composite improvement of the quantum computing hardware, added to that of error correction codes and algorithms, leaves only a small window to update digital infrastructure to post-surround cryptography.”
This statement emphasizes, in his opinion, the urgency of adapting current technologies so that quantum computers cannot invalidate existing encryption systems. Among them, those of Bitcoin.
Although Pierre-Luc does not specifically mention Bitcoin, his reference to the update of “digital infrastructure” implicitly includes the protocol created by Satoshi Nakamoto.
How does Bitcoin affect the researcher’s estimate?
Bitcoin, as a decentralized system, uses algorithm -based cryptography ECDSA (Elliptic curve digital signature algorithm), which protects private keys that guarantee the ownership of user funds, while their mining is anchored by the SHA-256 algorithm. If a quantum computer reached the ability to perform sufficiently powerful cryptoanalysis, it could derive private keys from the public, Committing the safety of stored funds In vulnerable addresses.
The next graphic Presented by Pierre-Luc, entitled “Resources needed for useful quantum algorithms compared to hardware capabilities”, offers its vision of projected evolution in the field of quantum computing.
The vertical axis represents the amount of Logical cubitscorrected quantum information units that are essential to execute algorithms, while the horizontal axis measures time in years.
In addition, two curves illustrate opposite trends in the image: the ascending red curve shows the growth of quantum hardware capabilitieswhich increases over time thanks to improvements in the construction of cubits and error correction, while the descending blue curve indicates The decrease in the necessary resources for quantum algorithms as they optimize.
The intersection point, labeled as “the beginning of the quantum era”, marks the moment in which these lines converge, suggesting that, in the near future, The hardware will reach the level required to withstand useful algorithmswhat could include the quantum cryptoanalysis that the researcher considers as a probable threat within five years.
Thus, the convergence of improvements in hardware, correction codes and quantum algorithms established by Pierre-Luc suggests that the gap could be closed in the next decade, marking the beginning of an era where quantum cryptoanalysis is viable.
At the moment, and despite certain advances in quantum computing, such as those of IBM, Ionq companies and a group of the University of Oxford, several analysts agree that the risk for Bitcoin cryptography It is still distant, while others consider it closer.
For example, Oxford Quantum Circuits (OQC) projects to reach 50,000 logical qubits by 2034, which would be equivalent to approximately 5 million physical cubits under an optimistic conversion of 100 physical cubits by logical cubits.
However, those levels would be below 13 million Cubits Physical Estimated by the University of Sussex as necessary to compromise a private Bitcoin key in one day and much further from what is proposed by Adam Back, co -founder of blockstream, which is the need for 3 million logical cubits to break Bitcoin.
Back also established a period of one or two decades so that quantum represents a tangible danger for BTC.
However, the estimate of Charles Edwards, founder of the Financial firm Capriole, of 2,500 logical cubits aligns more closely with the objectives of IBM for within four years.
Anti-Cuantic Proposals of the Bitcoin Community
While it is difficult to determine whether in the next five years (the time indicated by Pierre-Luc) Bitcoin will have an effective anti-charter shield, the concern drives the bitcoiner ecosystem and its developers to Propose mitigation measures.
Among them, Back, as Cryptonoticias reported it, at the beginning of June suggested to integrate a type of signature in Taproot addresses to protect Bitcoin from quantum attacks.
In April, a Chilean developer recommended A mandatory migration period During which users should transfer their funds from traditional ECDSA addresses to new directions resistant to quantum, replacing in them the ECDSA algorithm by algorithms algorithms algorithms algorithms algorithms algorithms resistant to quantum attacks, such as those based on Reticles or hash signatures.
In mid -March, Jameson LOPP, a Bitcoiner software engineer, raised the initiative of cancel BTC funds without owner To avoid its quantum kidnapping: “It is better to burn the bitcoins vulnerable to quantum.”
Finally, Ben Sigman, CEO of Bitcoin Libre, in December 2024 argued that Bitcoin 360’s improvement proposal (BIP-360) Bitcoin resistance would strengthen Faced with the advances in quantum computing.
