Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly told the US broadcaster Fox News on Sunday that the governance in Iran could “definitely be the result of Israel’s operation”, he said, the government in Tehran was very weak. “
US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has sent a contradictory signs. “We know where the so -called ‘supreme leader’ is hidden,” he announced on his personnel social network, Truth Social. “Hey is an easy goal, but there is safe – we’re not going out (kill!), At least not for now.”
It is not clear how long it can remain “for now”, though. The longer the long struggle between Israel and an Iran, the more it can be visible to Israel and the United States not only to get rid of the Iranian nuclear program, but also as the Islamic Republic.
Efforts made disastrous consequences
The German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) chief actt Voerts warned, “It is extremely suspicious that it will be possible to bring a governance from outside with a button push.” “If it comes to it, what things will go in the right direction, there are other questions.”
Foreign-influential “governance changes” is a highly controversial concept. Under international law, this is a clear violation of the sovereign of the affected state. Often, it is not democratically valid, and it often leads to a power vacuum or violence and instability. The newly established governments often get the Amelves Unstale to deal with the challenge of solving the country’s problems, and resulting in further crises and conflicts.
Afghanistan
This is the one who was happy in Afghanistan. After the terrorist attacks on New York on 11 September 2001, NATO applied the mutual defense guarantee inherent in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty before and (so far) only for time. A Western military coalition led by the United States pledged to top the Islamist Taliban rule of Afghanistan and fight the terrorist organization al-Qaeda.
It was quite successful, and by the end of 2001, the Taliban expelled bees out of Kabul. But various aspects of the coalition disagreed many things, including military, political and development assistance.
And so, for 20 years, the security situation remained extremely uncertain. The country was destroyed by attacks as the Taliban repeatedly started the counter office. Around 3.600 Western soldiers and around 50,000 Afghan citizens were killed between 2001 and 2021. The Afghanistan mission was priced at around $ 1 billion (€ 868 million).
After the chaotic return of the US and its associates in summer of 2021, the Taliban returned to power. Since then, they have withdrawn almost all the progress made in the last 20 years. Afghanistan is isolated and strict poor, with 23 million people branches on humanitarian aid.
Iraq
The United States once armed the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussain, who was in power for more than two decades. In 2003, however, it decided to overthrow her, with the help of “interested in the coalition”, but without a mandate from the United Nations Security Council. Washington justified the decision with the association that Saddam Hussain was supporting al-Qaeda and was in possession of weapons of the claims of mass destruction which later proved to be false.
The Middle East expert Eckhart Wortz today says, “Saddam Hussain was uprooted that he was not near the weapons of collective destruction, but not near the subject.” And, at that time, Iran paid attention.
Once topped Saddam Hussein, the Americans established a transitional government, which later criticized for mismanagement and lack of knowledge of the country.
The current enmity between various religious groups in Iraq deteriorated in a similar situation between Sunni and Shia Muslims. The deadly attacks were almost daily on the daily event. Soldiers from the Iraqi army started fighting American soldiers, who had first hit Saddam.
Twenty years after the US invasion and the change of governance in Iraq, the situation has improved. The violence has reduced, and the next round of parliamentary elections is scheduled in November. However, Iraq remains a country in the process of change.
Libia
Libya is very quiet with the consequences of a calm governance change, which came from without and hoisted from abroad. In view of the Arab spring, a prolonged dictator Muammar Gaddafi began a civil war in 2011 with a protest against RUL. When an attempt was made to reduce the rebellion with bloodshed, NATO military intervention as a no-fly zone to protect the civilian population. Governance hero for a few months. Then Gaddafi died on 20 October 2011.
But the acceptable government was never established in the whole country. Instead, after years of further struggle between rival militia. The state has almost disintegrated with various governments fighting for control since March 2022. The condition of human rights is extremely uncertain.
A little chance for change of governance in Iran
In addition to examples of thesis caution from recent history, Eckart Wortz sees another problem: eventually, the ground force will be requested to force the government’s change in Iran.
“I do not look at a large -scale strong rebel movement within Iran, which can eliminate the current regime,” called WOErts.
And from outside? “Whereas at the end of the second world, once a successful governance in Germany was changed, requiring a ground attack,” called Voertz. “And then you need an infection supported by local people. It helps if there is a normal external enemy – such as the Soviet block after 1945 – which shines on the differences. But the governance changes are with aerial bombing alone, and I don’t think it would except Iran.”
This article was original in German.
