According to historical patterns, the real estate market would be reaching its peak.
In addition, there is a debt crisis in gestation.
The economy moves in cycles, and one of the most powerful is the so -called “real estate cycle”, which lasts approximately 20 years. In 2026, the current cycle will be at its maximum point, which could lead to a real estate crisis that will benefit gold and other value reserve assets, such as Bitcoin (BTC).
Historically, gold tends to reach its maximum point several years after the peak in the prices of real estate and actions. And, if the story is repeated during the current cycle, started in 2012, Gold could reach its next great maximum around 2031.
This means that possibly The price of gold multiplies up to 4.5 timesas happened in the previous cycle.
The financial analyst specialized in real estate, Alan Longbon, Explain that the real estate cycle is based on the Income Law. This establishes that real estate capture all economic gains. That is, regardless of what improvements are made to increase productivity, The benefits tend to concentrate on the value of the soil. This principle acts in the economy as gravity in physics: invisible, but determining.
As a result, real estate prices rise for about 14 to 18 years, driven by economic growth and easy credit. Then, they reach a point where private debt is unsustainable and interest rates rise, which triggers a correction.
This pattern, which is shown more clearly in the following graph, It has appeared repeatedly for more than a centuryreinforced by demographic and financial factors.
The end of the current cycle is approaching, and it is good for gold
In that order of ideas, and following the pattern, We are in the final stages of the current cyclebeing 2026 when the roof is reached. There are seven signs that show it, according to Longbon. These are:
- Peak in housing builders: ETF as XHB, which follows the construction sector, reached a maximum in September 2024 and since then He has shown weakness. Another reference, Home Depot (HD), has fallen more than 10% so far this year.
- More flexible monetary policy: Before the slowdown in the sector, governments usually lower interest rates and make credit more flexible, which gives a temporary impulse to the actions of the construction sector. However, this rebound is usually weaker than the previous one.
- Pico in housing prices: It is expected for the middle or end of 2026, favored by lower rates. Historically, real estate peaks occur between June and October. Although prices still rise, their growth rate is increasingly weak.
- Maximum of the stock market: It usually comes a year after the real estate peak. It is another clear sign that the cycle is coming to an end.
- Investment of the performance curve: It occurs when short -term interests exceed the long term, which anticipates recessions. Although there was already an investment in 2023, the relevant is a second investment, which has not yet occurred.
- Official recession: It is usually declared late, but starts before. The economy usually shows contraction for months before it is formally recognized.
- Pico in raw materials and gold: Once the recession begins, gold tends to rise strongly, due to its role as safe refuge against economic uncertainty.
Indeed, most of the previous points (except for the officially declared economic recession) have already been experienced since last year, which gives certainty that the current real estate cycle is coming to an end. An incentive for gold, which has shown a clear relationship with the cycle.
For example, during the previous cycle, the precious metal reached a maximum in 2011 of USD 1,800 the ounce, just when the real estate cycle touched background after the burst of the 2008 real estate bubble.
Currently, gold is rising strongly, as can be seen in the following graph. Therefore, if the story is repeated and the employer is maintained, the current price (around USD 3,400) could reach more than USD 15,000 by ounce around 2031according to Longbon’s analysis.
Although there are no guarantees of this, the previous cycles give an idea of the possible behavior of gold and the moment in which its next great maximum could occur.
But it’s not just gold …
Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest digital currency, could also benefit significantly from the end of the current real estate cycle. Like gold, BTC has gained recognition as a value reserve against scenarios of economic instability and loss of confidence in traditional financial systems.
In fact, Bitcoin has shown a growing correlation with goldespecially in times of global uncertainty. According to several analysts, there is a “new era for hard assets”, where capital seeks to protect inflation, excessive indebtedness and structural imbalances of large economies, as reported by cryptootics. In this context, Bitcoin has begun to attract the same type of institutional investments that have traditionally gone to gold.
A relevant fact is that Bitcoin has been “stealing capital” to ETFs supported by gold, reflecting a change in the preferences of some investors towards digital assets as a form of coverage. This trend has led Bitcoin not only to accompany gold in the upward cycles, but even exceed it in performance during certain periods.
In addition, another key factor that could accelerate this dynamic is the Debt crisis that is coming in the United States. The North American country faces increasingly high public indebtedness levels, with figures that exceed 37 billion dollars and interest payments higher than a billion dollars per year.
This scenario threatens with a loss of confidence in the dollar as an asset of global reserve, which has traditionally promoted both gold and Bitcoin.
In essence, excess gold in institutional reserves, added to the growing demand for decentralized instruments, It could channel a significant part of capital towards Bitcoin. This movement would be especially strong if the Federal Reserve is forced to resume monetary flexibility policies to face a recession, as historically occurs after the peak of the real estate cycle.
Thus, while gold remains the classic reference in times of crisis, Bitcoin is positioning itself as its digital alternative. Both assets could see notable increases towards the end of the current cycle, and even more so if the problems of sovereign debt and inflation pressure intensify.
Understanding the real estate cycle allows you to anticipate important economic changes, including movements in the price of reserve assets. If the pattern is repeated, we are a few years after a new rebound in gold and Bitcoin prices, which represents a potential opportunity for those who prepare in advance.
This defend Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-seller «Rico Father, poor father», who predicts a global monetary collapse and recommends having gold, silver and bitcoin “If you want to be richer when the global debt bubble explodes.”
