Financial analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% probability that Strategy (MSTR), the Bitcoiner company Michael Saylor, enters the S&P 500 index in the second quarter of 2025, provided that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is maintained above 95,000 dollars.
According to Walton, the current price of Bitcoin, above $ 107,000, is 10,800 dollars above the necessary threshold so that Strategy meets the profitability requirements of the index.
“The price of Bitcoin needs to fall 10% in the next six days so that Strategy does not qualify,” explained. This calculation is based on the requirement of S&P 500, that companies show a net balance in profits in the last four combined quarters. It is worth clarifying that Walton makes these accounts as if Strategy’s operational balance depended purely and exclusively on Bitcoin’s price. But, in reality, the company has a great “financial machinery” that generates yields. Probably, even if Bitcoin fell from that price, Strategy would end up with positive profitability.
The S&P 500, an index that groups the 500 most representative companies of the US economy, has a Selection process rigorous. For example, it requires that a company has a capitalization of at least USD 5.3 billion, adequate liquidity, as well as a negotiation activity of at least 250,000 shares every six months. It must also be a company with at least 50% of its assets and income of American origin, have positive profits in the last four quarters and that at least 50% of its shares are owned by public investors.
Strategy, known for your investment in Bitcoin, accumulates 592.345 BTC, which makes it the largest public company with holdings of this digital currency. His last purchase, reported by cryptootics, was on June 22, 2025, when he acquired 245 BTC, approaching the milestone of the 600,000 BTC.
Walton performed a probabilistic analysis to support his prediction. Since 2014, in 3,928 periods of six days, the price of Bitcoin fell more than 10% on 343 occasions, which represents 8.7%. “In 91% of cases, Bitcoin does not fall 10% in six days,” he said.
Since the launch of ETF Ibit, Blackrock, which marked a change in Bitcoin’s institutional demand, the probability of a 10.7% drop in six days It is even lower, of only 3.4%.
“As the end of the quarter approaches, the probability that Bitcoin falls both in a shorter period decreases,” he added. If the price of Bitcoin remains at current levels, Strategy would have high chances of fulfilling the financial criteria of the S&P 500.
The analyst also highlighted the market context. “Bitcoin’s price in $ 106,000 makes me feel optimistic. Global tensions seem to have calmed down, and the stock market is close to historical maximums,” Walton said.
This bullish environment could favor the stability of the price of Bitcoin, key to Strategy’s finances. However, he warned that a fall to levels such as $ 98,200, registered last Sunday, would reduce the probability of admission to the index, since it would only require a 3% decrease for Strategy not to meet the requirements.
Strategy’s case would follow Coinbase’s precedent, the largest Bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States, which is already part of the S&P 500. The inclusion of this Mega-Ballena of Bitcoin would be a milestone for the sector, consolidating the relevance of companies with exposure to BTC in traditional markets.
