The German Trade Association (HDE) has announced its forecast for the full year 2024. A nominal increase in sales of around 1.3% compared to the previous year is expected for the entire retail sector. In the last two months of November and December, the growth will be identical: sales should increase by +1.3%, with a total turnover of 121.4 billion euros in the Christmas business.
“The development of the Christmas business fits into the year 2024 as a whole; sales remain stable despite a difficult environment and many uncertainties,” says HDE President Alexander von Preen. “It is a truism that consumption is to a large extent psychology. And things aren’t looking really good here at the moment. War in Ukraine, fighting in the Middle East and great economic uncertainty. This makes people more likely to keep their money together.”
Despite the continued negative mood among consumers, according to HDE, they are still planning to spend an average of around 297 euros on Christmas presents, which corresponds to an increase of two euros compared to the previous year. According to a joint survey with Handelsblatt, over half of those surveyed would like to invest the same amount as in 2023; only 24% are planning savings. Gift vouchers, toys and cosmetic items are particularly in demand this year. However, some companies are skeptical: Over half of the retailers surveyed expect Christmas business to be worse than last year. Optimism prevails particularly in the sporting goods, toys, consumer electronics, watches and jewelry sectors. In the non-food segment, retailers achieved up to 18.5% of annual sales in the last two months alone – and even over a quarter for toys and books. Online retail will also only grow moderately in 2024 and will remain stable with a nominal increase of 2%.
