Is it realistic to believe that there will be a Dogecoin ETF?

Dogecoin (Doge), the cryptocurrency that was born as a parody of the Altcoins market, could be closer than ever to formally land on Wall Street through a background quoted in the stock market (ETF). But is it realistic to believe that a Doge ETF will arrive?

To date, there are Four active requests to launch an ETF based on Doge. According to ETF analysts most followed by the financial ecosystem, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence, the approval of these financial vehicles is a very specific possibility.

Seyffart and Balchunas were the first to precisely predict the date of approval of Bitcoin ETF to cash, in January 2024, which has consolidated its credibility among institutional and retail investors.

Both argue that there is a 90% probability that the Bag and Securities Commission (SEC) Approve at least three ETFs based on Dogecoin Before October 17, 2025, deadline to make a decision.

Specialists see the same probability for the ETFs of other Altcoins, such as Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (Hbar) and Avalanche (Avax).

They also ensure that the probabilities of approval increase to 95% when talking about Litecoin ETF (LTC), Solana (Sun) and XRP, Ripple cryptocurrency, as Cryptonotics reported.

In the following box you can better appreciate the projections of the analysts:

Five requesting companies

The requests to issue ETF of Doge were submitted, at the beginning of this year, by the Bitwise, Grayscale, Rex Shares, Osprey Funds and 21Shares companies. Since then, the SEC has carried out various proposals reviews.

The most recent novelty came from Bitwise, which on June 25 presented an amended version of its S-1 form before the United States Stock Exchange and Securities Commission (SEC), as Cryptoics reported it.

This new document incorporates a key modification: the mechanism of creation and refund in kind, which could facilitate the operational management of the fund and increase the probabilities of approval.

The fact that the amended document has been presented is a good sign for ETFs, since it means that they are being reviewed by US authorities, reflecting willing to continue evaluating the proposal.

In general, the regulatory context is changing, and the United States Congress You can play a key role with new legal proposals that could promote the approval of the ETFs of Doge.

One of them, the Clarity Act, was presented to the House of Representatives on May 30. This project seeks to formally recognize cryptocurrencies as Doge as “digital products”, a category that would include any asset linked to a decentralized and used network to transfer value.

This regulatory advance would provide greater legal certainty for the creation of financial products supported by cryptocurrencies such as Doge. In the eyes of the market, legal recognition It is one of the most relevant elements to unlock the decisions of the SEC.

A different path to its origins

The path that Doge follows contrasts with its origins. This cryptocurrency was launched in 2013 Like a satire to the Altcoins ecosystemwithout the intention of competing with serious proposals such as Bitcoin.

However, since 2020 it has been promoted by frequent mentions of Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and Spacex, who has promoted Doge as a payment option in some of his businesses. In fact, the appointment of a US government office influenced. whose acronym is doge (government efficiency department).

However, it should be noted that, for the user community and investors of that cryptocurrency, the tycoon did nothing but corrupt Dogecoin. For some, Musk has “distorted and even destroyed the main theme behind the currency and its name,” as Cryptonoths reported.

Due to Musk’s influence, Doge market capitalization has grown sustainably, exceeding 26,000 million dollars currently. In addition, the asset remains the ninth most valued cryptocurrency in the market.

Would ETF of Doge impact the price?

The expectation for an ETF is reflected in the technical behavior of the price. In the last year, Doge has bounced three times on an ascending trend line, drawn from minimum price. This pattern is used by technical analysts to detect bullish trends.

Consecutive rebounds with higher minimums suggest that Doge demand remains firm and that the market structure is consolidating a solid support base, as cryptootics reported.

In that sense, an ETF based on Doge could have several effects on the market. On the one hand, it would allow institutional investors to have direct exposure to the asset without the need to acquire and store cryptocurrencies, which would reduce entry barriers. On the other hand, it would increase Doge’s liquidity and would expand its presence in the traditional financial ecosystem.

Although the approval of an ETF does not guarantee a sustained increase in the price, historically these events have positively influenced the value of the underlying assets. In the case of Bitcoin, from the approval of his ETF to cash The price has increased 150%.

Members of the Dogecoin community already visualize more ambitious scenarios. The influencer known as Doge Capital, who is presented as a financial educator, argues that Doge has the potential to reach 10 dollars in this market cycle. An exaggerated and difficult projection to comply.

Now, Doge is not Bitcoin. They are completely different assets, both in purpose, and in fundamentals. While BTC was designed as a decentralized digital currency with a limited supply and an approach to safety and stability as a value reserve, Doge was born as a joke inspired by an internet memewith a more community approach.

While the approval of a Dogecoin ETF would mean unprecedented institutional recognition for memecoin, it is unlikely that Get to generate the same corporate appetite They have caused Bitcoin products. An example of this is the ETF of Ether, which almost a year after their broadcast is that they begin to raise flight.

In this context, the probability that Dogecoin obtains your ETF is not just speculation. It is a concrete possibility that is already being valued by institutional actors, market analysts and legislators. If concrete, it will be a milestone for an Altcoin that was born without great pretensions, but that, even so, has managed to transcend the culture and digital economy.