Michael Spagate, a researcher of war and armed conflict at the University of London, has led one New study Analysis of death related to war in Gaza. It is estimated that more than 80,000 Palestinians have killed bees in the Israeli military operation in Gaza between October 7, 2023 and January 5, 2025.
“After all, the most important thing is to remember the victims one by one,” the expert told DW.
Hey Gajan Health Ministry is ensuring that every casualties have been recorded in lists, and said that he considers these records as “very accurate”.
The Ministries of Gaza are administered by the ruling Authority Hamas, which the European Union (EU), US and others classify as a terrorist organization.
“The Ministry of Health has a list of names with ID number, age, sexes,” Spagat told DW. “It can be easily verified.”
Search verification has already been done: in February, scientists published A study in Lancet Journal For example, comparing the commandments published on social media with a record kept by Gaza’s Ministry of Health. It was found that no additional name was added to the records of the ministry. However, it was found that many names were missing. Therefore, this study concluded that real Gaza’s death was likely to be great, which was being low-reported as 41%.
Field researcher in Gaza
Now, for the first time, a study has been conducted which is independent of Gaza’s health record ministry. A team of scientists led by Spagat interviewed people in Gaza, who were about the dead members of their homes. To end this, European scholars collaborated with Palestinian colleagues Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)Independent organization led by political scientist Khalil Shikki, and private foundations and funded by the European Union, others. PSR is located in the West Bank occupied in Ramallah, but is therefore experienced by employees working on the ground in Gaza.
“We did not go to Gaza, we were already in the entire partner organization,” Spagat said that he explained the data collection process.
Currently, Cogat, the Israeli Defense Ministry Unit worked with the administrative civil policy at West Bank and coordinated Logistics Betty Israel and Gaza, with the exception of some aid organization, allowing to enter the battlefield. Hence Israel has entered international journalist Gaza since the launch of Israel’s siege and military campaign.
“Nobody for my relief [the PSR] Field workers died in the war, “Spagat told DW.” All the people working in the survey are still alive. ,
Researchers on the ground surveyed a sample of 2,000 houses, representative of Gaza’s pre-October 7, 2023. They were unequal who declared bee as an active fighter region and was sealed by Israel’s armed forces. Since the entire population of Gaza has been exhibited virtually, researchers have excluded the residents of refugee camps and tent meetings who are giving homes to Palestinians in North Gaza, Rafa and other places.
Malnutrition and disease death
The researcher found that between October 7, 2023 and January 5, 2025, some 75,200 Palestinians in Gaza died as a violent death as the war. This figure is about 40% higher than the report for the same period (45.650 deaths) by the Ministry of Health of Gaza.
Researchers compiled a separate match of deaths related to non -violent war due to starvation or death of those who died of starvation due to war and displacement, and except for those who were likely to die of chronic or disease regardless of war. The count told Gaza’s death toll about another 8.540 so -called “indirect” deaths.
This indirect death is much lower than the previoli estimated by great supervisors. In July 2024, a study published in the Lancet estimated that four more indirect deaths would have to be assumed for every death recorded. For months, assistance organizations have been warning that thousands of Gajan citizens are in danger of dying of diseases and starvation brought by the blockade of Israel.
Spagate considered this low indirect death great for Gaza’s youth population, which he says that at the beginning of the war, with relative health as well as the “very good public health system” of coastal strips and “high vaccination councils, United Nations and other aid organizations.” He said that this death was no less meas than other people and “aid organizations have done a good job in keeping people alive during the war that can discuss this aid well.”
But, he warned, Gaza was studied before the total blockade of Israel’s assistance, “a lot of people are alive, but malnourished. If infectious diseases are broken, things can change rapidly.” Hey told DW that “Even though there is a ceasefire next week and it sticks, additional, non -violent death is going to move forward.” As a search, “This is not a final number.”
His study has not yet been reviewed independently by scientists who were not involved in the research project. This is another reason that the thesis fatal figures cannot be considered final yet. However, the findings correspond to previous independent studies.
Are the figures provided by Hamas reliable?
Spagt, Shikaki and his teams implemented various methods, but chased a similar question: they wanted to test the reliability of the numbers mentioned by Gaza’s Health Ministry independently. What they found is that the death report is reliable infofer because they do not make great exaggeration of real death in any way, but a conservative is the minimum tally.
“Here, we have found an independent measurement that certainly shows, I believe that they are not great to death,” Spagt Citted. He said that his study shows that Gaza’s Health Ministry “provides a very accurate picture of those killed, especially in women, children and the elderly where our number is similar to their number.”
For more than half of the violent deaths seen during the study period, for women, children and the elderly.
Are most of those killed fighters?
Most of the killed men were 15 and 49. However, Spagut explained, it does not indicate whether Israeli armed forces were targeting actulic targeted fighters, as they claim. As the expert said, young boys and men are killed more often in wars. Neither his study nor Gaza Health Ministry distinguishes between fighters and citizens in his death.
The scholar said that the researchers in the region refrained from asking if the members of Hamas lived in the houses involved in the survey, as they could be at risk of being suspicious as undercover Israeli agents.
“A large number of young children” were killed in the war. While comparatively hesitant to compare, he stated that, 4% of the striking, Gaza population has been killed so far, making it “the highest percentage of the population killed for anyone in the 21st century.”
If you project data from the study of Spagate and Shipaki to the present day, then you quickly reach one. 100,000 death tollIt is difficult to imagine such a shocking number. Each figure stands for a person for a name and a story.
Many of them will never know, but some of them, such as the al-Najar family, we do. Children Yahya, Rakan, Ruslan, Jubran, Eve, Rivan, Saidin, Lukman and Sida were killed on May 23, 2025 on an Israeli airstrike on Khan Younis.
His mother survived as she was on duty as a doctor in a hospital. Only his eleven -year -old son Adam survived the air strike. The father of the children, Hamdi al-Nazar, died a few days later due to injuries in the same attack. Unlike most other Gaza victims, their names became known worldwide.
This article was original in German.
