“This cycle does not resemble the madness of 2021,” says analyst Burak Kesmeci.
When the retailers arrive, the train would be approaching its final stop.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market lives a peculiar moment: a sustained rally, but without the characteristic bustle of retail investors.
Unlike past cycles, where the buying fever of small investors marked the rhythm, Today are the big players – institutions, funds and companies – who lead the burdenaccumulating the currency with a long -term look.
With the price of Bitcoin around $ 120,000, on-chain data reveals a clear dynamic. “This cycle does not resemble the madness of 2021”, affirms Analyst Burak Kesmeci, in a report published by the on-chain Cryptoquant data provider.
While the retailers sell, institutional investors and large portfolios, including funds quoted in the stock market (ETF), accumulate BTC aggressively since the beginning of 2024, the year in which these financial instruments came to the stock exchange.
This movement suggests a long -term trust strategy, away from the frantic speculation of yesteryear. Another case arises from public contribution companies that have adopted Bitcoin for their treasury. So far they have accumulated 918.108 BTC consolidating A “corporatization” trend of digital currencyas reported by cryptootics.
Retailers out
On the contrary, retail investors show opposite behavior. Since 2023, their BTC holdings have constantly decreasedwith a negative net accumulation.
As can be seen in the graph, from the end of 2022 and, more pronounced in 2024 and 2025, the blue section (retailers) shows a negative accumulation (below the zero line), indicating that their BTC holdings have constantly decreased.
Many, especially short -term Hodlers – who maintain their coins for less than 155 days – choose to take profits after strong recent increases.
This sale contrasts with the strategic accumulation of the great players, which explains the absence of a retail frenzy. The Google Trends data They reinforce this idea: “bitcoin” searches are moderate, far from euphoria peaks seen in previous cycles.
“There is no massive euphoria, nor are social networks overflowing,” says Kesmeci. The lack of fomo (fear of staying out) among retailers Indicates that the market has not yet reached its boiling point.
“The quiet and intelligent money is on stage, while most observe from the band line,” he adds. This panorama suggests that the rally could have space to grow, provided that retailers do not enter into mass. However, Kesmeci warns: “When the retailers arrive, the train would be approaching its final stop.”
A change in the horizon
The profile of Bitcoin buyers is also evolving. Less and fewer individuals adopt currency as protection against inflation or economic uncertainty, while companies embrace it with greater conviction.
This change reinforces the idea of a market professionalization, where decisions are made with a more strategic approach.
“If retail investors have not yet entered, the way ahead can still be open,” says Kesmeci. For now, Bitcoin’s rally advances driven by the institutional muscle, but the question persists: when will the crowd awake? When doing so, the market could be close to a turning point.
