For Hougan, the impact of the BTC halving on the price decreases with each new cycle.
Bitwise’s CIO values the progress of the regulation and institutionalization of the market.
Matt Hougan, investment director of the Bitwise digital asset management company, considers that 2026 will be a good year for Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market. Although he admits that there could be high volatility, he argues that the structural factors that currently drive the sector are more solid than those that marked previous cycles.
HOUGAN part of the premise that The four -year cycle that has historically marked Bitcoin’s behavior could be behind. According to Explainthe forces that defined that pattern are losing relevance, while new long -term dynamics begin to mold the course of the industry.
It is worth mentioning that, since the origin of Bitcoin in 2009, its price has maintained a pattern that is repeated every four years in the Bitcoin market: a strong rise in the price, followed by an important fall.
This behavior is related to Halving events, scheduled every four years, in which the reward for undermining a block is reduced by half, reducing the emission of new BTC.
Said phenomenon, which will occur until Bitcoin’s total supply (21 million units) is finished in 2140, facilitates that its price will rise to purchases, by the law of supply and demand.
In the following year to each halving, Bitcoin has marked the end of an upward cycle began a crypto -winter of several months, a pattern that would continue to mean the beginning of a bearish market at some point in this year, since in 2024 it was the latest edition of this event.
However, Hougan believes that the rising pattern around halving no longer has the same weight. His first argument is that the reduction in the emission of Bitcoin becomes less and lower in absolute terms.
For example, in 2012 the block reward went from 50 to 25 BTC, while in 2024 it was reduced from 6.25 to 3,125 BTC. As this incentive represents a smaller portion of the total BTC in circulation, its impact on the price also decreases.
In the Bitcoin network, the creation of new currencies occurs when miners validate transactions and group them into blocks. As remuneration for this work, they receive a newly generated amount of BTC, known as “block reward.”
More friendly macro conditions and lower risk of extreme collapses
Hougan also highlights a significant change in the macroeconomic environment. In previous cycles, as in 2018 and 2022, the increases of interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FED) negatively affected risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Today, on the other hand, the context seems to favor cryptocurrencies, thanks to the possibility of cuts in rates and a more favorable scenario for investment.
Another key difference with previous cycles is the decrease in the risk of catastrophic collapses within the ecosystem. According to Hougan, this is due to the progress of regulation and the growing institutionalization of the market.
Unlike years such as 2022, when bankruptcies of exchanges and other little transparent actors were recorded, today there are greater controls, more regulated companies and a more robust infrastructure.
However, he warns about an emerging risk: the increasing weight of companies that maintain large amounts of Bitcoin in their balances – as Strategy or Metaplenet. Although this phenomenon is still in development, Hougan considers that he deserves attention due to his possible impact on the market.
Probably, the specialist refers to the fact that if these companies came to sell large amounts of BTC, they could cause significant price fluctuations. In addition, this concentration could alter the traditional relationship between supply and demand, by granting greater influence to corporate decisions on market behavior.
Beyond the loss of influence of the four -year cycle, Hougan highlights the appearance of forces of greater scale and long term. Among them, the adoption of Bitcoin ETFs.
According to his perspective, this trend, which began in 2024 with the approval of the first funds quoted in cash in the US. will attract a large amount of capital to the sector.
On the other hand, the regulatory advance represents another key engine. Bitwise’s CIO emphasizes that, since January 2025, the United States began a serious process of regulation of the sector, which will extend for several years. This framework will not only provide greater legal certainty, but will also pave the way for the entry of great financial actors.
In fact, the specialist mentions the recent approval of the Genius Law, which, in his opinion, will allow the entry of billions of dollars into investments.
As Cryptonotics reported, Genius law received green light with broad bipartisan support. The initiative for the first time establishes a specific legal framework to regulate the stablcoins, that is, cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a 1: 1 parity with the dollar.
With this confluence of factors, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin might not have a crypto winter in 2026 As expected according to your historical pattern.
