Bitcoin could be entering a new growth stage, driven by macroeconomic decisions and public policies.
In particular, the credit boom supported by the State and the progressive incorporation of cryptoactive in retirement savings plans would be configuring an environment in which BTC could benefit structurally.
This thesis is backed by Arthur HayesBitmex co -founder and an influential voice in the ecosystem, in its most recent essay.
Hayes argues that the key to understanding the rise of Bitcoin (BTC) lies in the growth of Fíat money supply, particularly in a context of credit expansion.
In his analysis, the specialist Point out That the US government, under the administration of Donald Trump, is adopting what he calls a model of “economic fascism” or “q for the poor.”
This model consists in generating credit supported by the State for key industries such as rare earths, semiconductors and weapons, which increases the money supply.
According to any, Credit creation increases money supplywhich has historically devalued the money fiat and high the price of scarce assets.
Keep in mind that, by granting a loan, institutions create an additional balance in the client’s account, thus increasing the money available in the economy. Through policies such as the purchase of assets or stimulus programs, the Central Bank injects new money into the system.
Since Fíat currencies are not backed by physical assets such as gold, but by confidence in governments and their economies, When the amount of money grows faster than the production of goods and services, the value of each monetary unit decreases. This generates inflation.
At this point, people and institutions seek to protect their heritage by buying assets that are scarce and difficult to increase in quantity, which is beneficial for the creation of Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin on retirement savings
One of the most relevant points of Hayes’s analysis is The connection that establishes between credit expansion and retirement plans. This amid the reports that began to circulate that Trump will sign an executive order in the US. Which will authorize plans 401 (k) to invest in cryptocurrencies, as cryptoics reported.
It is important to note that plans 401 (k) are retirement savings programs in the US, managed by employers and with tax benefits. Currently, these administer about 8.7 billion dollars in assets.
Hayes interprets this measure as a political play: by authorizing investment in Bitcoin from retirement plans, The government would not only promote the adoption of digital assetsbut it would also be favoring a younger and diverse electorate, one who has more cryptocurrencies than actions.
«From Trump and Besent’s perspective, the positive thing about cryptocurrencies is that a greater percentage of groups that traditionally do not have actions, such as young people, people with less resources and minorities, have cryptoactive, compared to the white and wealthy population of the Boomer generation. Therefore, if cryptocurrencies grow, expand and diversify the group of people who support the economic platform of the party in power. In addition, to promote that different types of savings are allocated to cryptoactive, a recent executive decree allows 401 (K) retirement plans, which handle about 8.7 billion dollars in assets, explicitly invest in cryptocurrencies ».
Arthur Hayes, Bitmex co -founder.
Thus, the businessman seems to suggest that if more important and stable funds such as retirement plans bet on Bitcoin, part of the capital will move outside of traditional investments, weakening the demand for these financial instruments and confidence in the currency. In turn, traditional money will lose purchasing power due to inflation generated by credit expansion.
It should be noted that bank regulation in the United States has also advanced towards the institutional acceptance of Bitcoin and cryptoactive. In March of this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a guide that authorizes supervised financial institutions to participate in activities related to cryptocurrency, without requiring previous approvals.
