Since September 25, Madagascar has seen a dramatic shift in its political landscape as young protesters took to the streets, sparking one of the most powerful demonstrations in the country’s recent history. On Monday thousands of people gathered at a square in the capital, Antananarivo, chanting: “The president must step down now”.
The movement gained significant momentum and support when the Corps d’Administration des Personnel et des Services Administratifs et Techniques (CAPSAT) unit of the armed forces decided to stand behind the Gen Z-led demonstrations.
“From now on, all orders of the Malagasy army, whether land, air or military, will come from CAPSAT headquarters,” unit officials announced in a video statement. He urged the country’s security forces to stand firm in solidarity by rejecting “any orders to open fire” on protesters, stressing the importance of protecting citizens’ rights and maintaining peace during this critical moment.
President Andry Rajoelina, whose whereabouts are currently unknown, condemned CAPSAT’s support for the protesters as “an attempt to seize power illegally and by force, contrary to the Constitution and democratic principles.”
Rajoelina left Madagascar on Sunday after CAPSAT declared its support for the protesters, opposition leader in parliament Siteni Randrianosoloniako told Reuters news agency. Rajoelina flew out of the country on a French military plane on Sunday, a military source told Reuters. French radio RFI said it had reached an agreement with President Emmanuel Macron.
“We called the staff of the presidential office and they confirmed that he had left the country,” Randrianasoloniakou said.
Opposition members of Madagascar’s National Assembly will launch impeachment proceedings against Rajoelina, Randriana Soloniako said. He said of Rajoelina, “Our Constitution gives us the right to impeach the President; we are impeaching him.”
Protesters celebrated Rajoelina’s departure from the country by singing the national anthem and marching through the streets waving flags.
Is history repeating itself?
Rajoelina came to power in 2009, when CAPSAT supported a rebellion to oust his predecessor.
At the time, Rajoelina was mayor of the capital and he led thousands into the streets demanding the resignation of President Marc Ravalomanana’s government.
Observers say that the incidents that are coming to light are so extreme that they cannot be ignored.
“Because of CAPSAT’s influence, history and legitimacy, it means that as much as Rajoelina has leverage and control over other entities, the balance of power is not in his favor right now,” political risk analyst Rose Mumanya told DW.
a report of Small Arms Survey It turns out that Rajoelina’s predecessor, 75-year-old Marc Ravalomanana, was not ousted in a violent military coup but rather lost control of the security apparatus.
Mumanya said that, although Rajoelina has tried to place his loyalists in other units of the armed forces to prevent a repeat of history, CAPSAT remains independent of his influence, posing a significant threat to his regime.
What makes CapSat so important?
Although CAPSAT is not a front-line combat unit, it controls important aspects of the army, including personnel management, administrative support, logistics and technical services.
“It is led by the influential elite of the Gendarmerie group, and it has close ties to the influential and business elite in the country. A lot of them are no longer Rajoelina supporters. Over the last three to four years, they have become more suspicious of Rajoelina and have questioned whether their interests coincide,” Mumanya said.
Analysts believe that the power of the military makes it one of the best organized institutions in Madagascar, with the power to intervene in political crises.
The appointment of the new Army Chief of Staff, General Demosthenes Piculus, selected by CAPSAT, has strengthened its importance in the army. His installation comes after Rajoelina dissolved his government, leaving several positions vacant.
At a ceremony to install Piculus into office, Armed Forces Minister Manantsoa Deramasinjaka Rakotoriwelo was quoted as saying, “I give him my blessing.”
Mumanya expressed concern. “If the coup is successful and Rajoelina is removed from power, the consequences will be very serious,” he said. “It will be a continuation of the same cycle where you have very weak institutions and a relatively strong military that can intervene not for the benefit of the people but for the benefit of the business and political elites.”
Rajoelina had already dismissed his government and appointed a new prime minister, but protesters were not impressed.
Some analysts believe that a genuine national dialogue that brings together all aggrieved stakeholders could be an important starting point for resolving the impasse.
Edited by: Silja Frohlich