Fierce fighting broke out between Pakistani forces and Afghan Taliban forces over the weekend, the deadliest conflict between the neighbors since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul in 2021.
Both Pakistani officials and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan have claimed to have inflicted heavy losses on the opposition.
The Taliban said on Sunday that they had killed 58 Pakistani soldiers in an overnight border operation. Pakistan’s army put the number of casualties as very low and said that 23 of its soldiers were killed. Taliban has also claimed to have captured 25 Pakistani army posts.
Pakistan’s army has claimed to have killed more than 200 Afghan fighters. The Taliban said only nine soldiers from their side were killed.
The claims of both sides could not be independently verified. Access to the border area is highly restricted.
Why are Pakistan and Afghan Taliban fighting?
Tensions between the once-allies escalated after Islamabad demanded that Kabul take action against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a splinter group closely linked to the Afghan Taliban.
The TTP seeks to impose a radical interpretation of Islam, particularly on Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.
According to the Pakistan government, this group operates without fear from the soil of Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban denies this.
TTP militants have intensified attacks against Pakistani security forces in recent years.
A UN report this year, referring to the Taliban government in Kabul, found that the TTP “receives substantial logistical and operational support from the de facto authorities”.
AFP news agency quoted a Pakistani military spokesman as saying that more than 500 people, including 311 soldiers and 73 policemen, were killed in the attacks between January and September 15.
The Pakistan government has also accused India of supporting the Pakistani Taliban and other insurgent organizations to destabilize Pakistan. India denies such allegations and says that Pakistan itself is involved in supporting separatist terrorist groups operating in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Situation critical across the border
Last week, the Afghan Taliban accused Pakistan of bombing a market in Kabul and the east of the country.
The Pakistan government did not confirm or deny the air strikes. But Pakistan has repeatedly asserted its right to defend itself against the rise of cross-border terrorism.
Afghan Taliban forces said they attacked Pakistani troops late Saturday in “retaliation for airstrikes carried out by Pakistani forces on Kabul.”
Washington-based South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman told DW that the latest clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan “are driven by Islamabad’s failure to stop Afghanistan-based anti-Pakistan terrorism.”
“Despite trying various strategies, including negotiations and limited military operations, primarily within Pakistan, success has been elusive,” Kugelman said. He said Pakistan’s “intensified counter-terrorism operation” against targets in Afghanistan has now triggered a Taliban response, escalating tensions.
Although the fighting appears to have largely ended, the situation remains fragile and tensions run high.
The clashes also halted border trade between the two countries as Pakistan closed crossings along the 2,600 kilometers (1,600 mi) border.
A representative of Pakistani industry told Reuters news agency that the move left a large number of cargo vehicles stranded on both sides.
Will TTP increase attacks?
Omar Samad, Afghanistan’s former ambassador to Canada and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told DW that the animosity between the two sides “could escalate into widespread violence and military action beyond what we are experiencing” and could irreparably damage relations between the countries.
“Tensions between the Pakistani military establishment and the de facto Afghan government have been rising for the past two years, partly due to missteps, misunderstandings and mismanagement,” Samad said.
Kugelman’s view is that one consequence of the crisis could be an increase in reprisal attacks by the TTP, “which has a strong presence in Pakistan despite having its main base in Afghanistan.”
He said that despite being able to take action on border posts, the Afghan Taliban cannot compete with Pakistan’s army.
“Thus, TTP retaliation, possibly encouraged by the Afghan Taliban, remains a major concern for Pakistan’s future,” he said.
Imtiaz Gul, a security expert and executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad, was of the same view.
“After the conflict with Afghanistan, Pakistan now faces more than ever the growing threat of terrorism from the TTP,” he told DW. “There is now a need to strengthen counter-terrorism operations and intelligence capabilities to combat these threats and eliminate terrorism.”
Is it time to reduce stress?
Despite strained relations between the governments, the neighbors have made efforts to improve relations in the past year.
In May, the Pakistan government announced it would upgrade its diplomatic ties with the Afghan Taliban and appoint an ambassador to Kabul, although Islamabad has not yet formally recognized the Taliban government.
The neighboring nations also share close historical, cultural and people-to-people ties.
Millions of Afghans who fled the war-torn country in the last 40 years have found shelter in Pakistan.
But, amid strained relations with the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistan government launched a major initiative to repatriate nearly 4 million Afghans living in the country in 2023.
Pakistan’s government has since deported more than 800,000 Afghans, creating another source of tension with Kabul.
‘No time to cheat’
Samad said that instead of adopting combative tactics, both sides should hold constructive talks to resolve their issues.
“Despite bravery and arrogance, both countries have weaknesses and strengths that are unmatched and contradictory,” Samad said. “Afghanistan has little to lose despite overwhelming military odds, but Pakistan is weak from within.”
“Now is the time for political skill, caution and honest dialogue,” Samad said. “There is no time for deception, spin and bluster,” he said.
Edited by: Srinivas Majumdaru