Russia attacks Ukraine’s energy infrastructure almost daily. On Tuesday night, Russian bombs hit the city of Kharkiv, resulting in power outages in three districts. Meanwhile, the attacks on October 10 simultaneously damaged electricity and gas infrastructure in several different regions of Ukraine.
Russia has launched large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid in recent years, but has not yet succeeded in causing major power outages. Experts say that this time due to cold weather, Russia is targeting Ukraine’s gas supply and pipeline network. The upcoming winter could turn out to be one of the toughest for Ukraine since Russia first launches its full-scale invasion in 2022.
Central heating systems have already been put into operation in Ukraine’s Rivne, Lviv and Khmelnytsky regions, as well as in the capital Kiev. It should be said that so far heat is being supplied only to communal facilities. In Kherson, most houses that had their own boilers were burned down on 1 October, while in the Kharkiv region, heaters would not be turned off until early November.
At the same time, in some cities of the Kharkiv region, in particular Kupyansk, there will be no district heating, as the head of the regional military administration Oleh Sinyhubov told Ukrainian Radio. The reason for this is Russian attacks targeted at energy facilities in the region.
Gas facilities caught fire
Russia’s latest large-scale attacks have crippled more than half of Ukraine’s gas production facilities, US news outlets report. bloombergSergei Koretsky, CEO of Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz, said the Russian attacks on the Kharkiv and Poltava regions during the night of October 3, which included 35 missiles and 60 drones, were some of the most destructive ever.
“This is terrorism directed against civilian facilities that produce and process gas that is essential to people’s daily lives,” Koretsky said. “This has no military meaning. This is another example of Russian betrayal and is aimed solely at disrupting the summer season and preventing Ukrainian homes from being heated in the winter.
Koretsky said that “a significant portion of our facilities” have been damaged in recent attacks, with some of the damage being “severe”.
Russia aims to disrupt gas production
“The Russians want Ukraine to be cut off from gas,” Volodymyr Omelchenko, an energy expert at the Razumkov think tank in Kiev, told DW. “We have to buy even more emergency equipment, because the enemy is now attacking not only the gas supply but also the gas distribution network.”
Talking to US Daily Washington Post In September, Koretsky said that Russia had destroyed about 42% of daily gas production.
“Russia will do everything possible to prevent us from producing gas,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schuof in early October. “It will be difficult to protect all this [infrastructure],
Zelensky nevertheless assured Ukrainians that they would not have to pay more for gas.
“This winter, we will maintain a fixed gas price for private customers, with no price increases,” he said in a video address on October 7.
Can Ukraine afford additional gas imports?
Ukraine has almost completed its initial plans for gas storage for the winter. However, recent Russian attacks on the gas supply and transportation system have forced the government to revise its goals.
“If possible, we intend to increase our import capacity by another 30%,” Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk said at a Kyiv briefing on October 7.
In August, Hrynchuk announced that Ukraine plans to stockpile 13.2 billion cubic meters of gas by the start of the heating season, of which 4.6 billion cubic meters will be imported. Yet researcher Omelchenko said Ukraine would now be forced to secure additional gas imports because many of its gas production facilities have been destroyed.
Omelchenko said that even if authorities manage to pump 13.2 billion cubic meters of gas into underground silos by the end of October as planned, it will not be enough. So they expect Ukraine will need to buy an additional 2 billion cubic meters of gas.
“Increasing [gas] “Imports will require additional funds of up to $1 billion, which will have to be raised with the help of our partners,” he said.
Hrynchuk said Ukraine has the financial means to pay for its gas imports. After all, Ukraine has received a $500 million (€430 million) loan from the European Bank for reconstruction and development, as well as a $300 million loan from the European Investment Bank for fuel purchases. Both loans are guaranteed by the European Commission.
Are price increases inevitable?
While Ukraine will have to repay these loans sooner or later, it has refused to raise gas prices for private households for years. However, analysts say that without price increases, energy suppliers will not be able to provide Ukrainian households with enough gas.
“Natural gas in Europe is bought at 23,000 to 27,000 hryvnia (about €480 to €560) per thousand cubic meters,” Svyatoslav Pavlyuk. The Association of Energy Efficient Cities of Ukraine told DW. “Gas is delivered to homes for 7,900 hryvnia including VAT; so the difference is 20,000 hryvnia and someone has to pay it.”
Pavlyuk said that Ukraine previously used to mix its cheap gas with more expensive imported gas, which allowed it to get by. He said, but now that more gas will have to be taken from abroad, there should be no confusion about cheap gas.
“Local authorities cannot use their funds to repair supply networks, improve energy efficiency or switch to alternative fuels such as biomass or heat pumps. Instead, they must pay for the difference in the price of gas,” Pavlyuk said.
These circumstances will probably force authorities to cut costs, for example by reducing the temperature of district heating. “The radiators won’t be as hot, you won’t freeze, but it will be colder than normal,” he said. “This is what our heating season will look like, although it will look different in different cities.”
Pavlyuk recommended that Ukrainians should prepare for possible electricity, gas or heating outages.
This article was originally written in German.