The African Union (AU) suspended Madagascar’s membership on Wednesday following the coup against ousted President Andrey Rajoelina, three weeks after Gen Z-led anti-government protests.
Coup leader Colonel Michel Randrianarina was sworn in as Madagascar’s president on Friday.
Randrianarina led the CAPSAT army unit that mutinied and joined the protesters before the army declared its occupation of the island nation.
Madagascar joins Sudan, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and Gabon, whose African Union membership was also suspended following the military coup.
one in statement Issued after an emergency meeting on Madagascar, AU chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssef described the suspension as “based on law and negotiations”, adding that “the rule of law must prevail over the rule of force”.
The move to suspend Madagascar from the AU has been criticized by analysts such as Fidel Amake Owusu, a security analyst specializing in African affairs and geopolitics, who says the bloc’s protocol that regulates coup-related incidents in Africa is reactionary in nature.
Ryan Cummings, director of analytics at Signal Risk, an Africa-focused risk management company, believes suspension has become the AU’s only mechanism to address “undemocratic acts”.
“I think the African Union’s suspension of Madagascar in relation to an unconstitutional power grab reflects the limited mechanisms that the pan-African body has to ensure that there is some kind of accountability or consequences,” Cummings told DW.
What is to be achieved from AU suspension?
According to Cummings, the AU suspends nations to express their disapproval of unconstitutional transitions of power between member states.
The South Africa-based think tank Institute for Security Studies (ISS) also sees the AU suspension as an opportunity to change the behavior of guilty member states and promote collective norms.
However, in most cases, the bloc’s actions do not necessarily prevent unconstitutional changes of governments.
“Sanctions implemented against Sudan, Mali and Burkina Faso have not prevented the recurrence of coups there. Nor have they prevented the military’s illegal takeover of power in Guinea, Niger, Chad and Gabon,” ISS said in a statement. 2023 report.
Despite these punitive measures, many countries have still not restored constitutional order or returned to democratic rule.
Apart from suspension, what can AU do?
AU established Conflict Resolution, Peace and Security Organization To provide proactive measures to prevent the escalation of internal crises in member countries.
According to the AU, the decision-making body is “a collective security and early warning mechanism aimed at facilitating a timely and efficient response to conflict and crisis situations in Africa.”
However, critics say the regional bloc usually delays fulfilling this mandate.
“The AU should have deployed preventive missions based on early warning indicators when the incidents occurred,” the ISS report said.
“These could have been fact-checking missions to determine whether constitutional amendments could be considered, at least to show seriousness about all unconstitutional changes, not just military coups.”
But political risk analysts like Cummings believe that some of the African Union’s delay in intervening is due to the body’s respect for the sovereignty of its member states.
Cummings told DW that sovereignty is one of the AU’s core principles and that it will not intervene in any issue absent a formal request.
“Even if he is invited to do so, he will consider the consequences of his actions,” Cummings said. “If its actions could lead to greater instability, it would likely limit its intervention to negotiations only.”
In the case of Madagascar, the AU October 12 statement Talks were urged between protesters, the now ousted Rajoelina-led government and security forces after the military extended its support to the Gen Z protests.
“The Chair of the Commission welcomes the government’s new commitment to dialogue and urges all Malagasy stakeholders, both civilian and military, to exercise calm and restraint,” the AU said in a statement.
According to Amakey Owusu, an international relations and security analyst, the AU may only issue these cautionary statements as a way to deal with instability across the region.
“It’s a regional body, it’s not a sovereign body and so there are limits to what it can actually do. As it is, states are more powerful as individual units than as a regional body,” he told DW.
Owusu suggested the intervention of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which Madagascar is a member. The regional economic bloc often plays an important role in mediation and stabilization.
However, Owusu believes “there is little any group can do to change course in the short term.”
“A lot will depend on the public. They started it and they can direct where it will go,” he said.
Edited by: Keith Walker