In late summer, Marcela Pagano, a member of parliament for La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances), Argentina’s ruling party for the past two years, dropped a political bomb. She reacted angrily on social media on August 21, shortly after he and three other MPs announced they were leaving the party.
Pagano’s anger was directed at President Javier Meili, a far-right subversive who is still seen by many of Argentina’s 46 million citizens as a savior, a beacon of hope and a messiah.
“I was convinced we could make real change, but unfortunately, the project has lost its way,” Pagano told DW about his objectives. He said the government has ignored the needs of the middle class and disadvantaged groups like disabled people and pensioners. And “in cases of suspected corruption, the suspects have not only been fired from their jobs as promised, but have even been protected,” he said angrily.
Pagano didn’t mince a word in his incendiary statement. She said Miley has surrounded herself with opportunists, yes-men and sycophants, while constructive criticism is severely punished. Grandparents have to choose between food and medicine, while universities are falling into disrepair and corruption is not being tackled. Miley must change her stance, he insisted, otherwise the country and the industry will be ruined.
On the eve of Sunday’s parliamentary elections, in which half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate will be re-elected, the 39-year-old has struck a chord. The sharp drop in inflation (just 2.1% in September 2025 compared to the previous month) is coming at a very high price, with many economists around the world calling it the “Argentine Miracle”.
“The lack of demand and rising energy and financing costs have caused more than 25,000 small and medium-sized enterprises to close or suspend operations. The purchasing power of formal wages fell by about 20% in real terms, while informal incomes and minimum pensions lost more than 30% of their value relative to inflation,” Pagano said. “And sectors like manufacturing, retail and services have almost completely shut down.”
Shock therapy with serious side effects
If elected as president in 2023, Miley vowed to slash state spending and address Argentina’s $278 billion (€239 billion) foreign debt with his symbolic chainsaw. The liberal economist has since fired thousands of civil servants, merged ministries and cut subsidies for life-saving medicine, electricity, water, gas and public transport.
In addition to curbing hyperinflation, this radical austerity policy has resulted in some impressive results: the first budget surplus since 2010, a rapid import boom, and record profits for mining and energy exporting companies.
But poorer sections of society have long known that these macroeconomic successes are virtually useless to them. The phrase “My month ends on the 20th” has become a catchphrase for many Argentines, as their salary is not enough to cover the remaining 10 days.
Experts estimate that every second Argentine has to dip into their savings every month to make ends meet. This is due to the overvalued Argentine peso compared with prices similar to those in the US and Europe, as well as rising unemployment, frozen wages and skyrocketing rents due to the liberalization of the housing market.
“Many people are working even harder, while others are postponing any nonessential purchases,” said political analyst Sergio Berenstain. “People who used to buy the best brands are now settling for the second or third best brands. Families are drowning in debt. We have been in recession for two quarters, which has led to a decline in consumption.”
Trump wants to help Miley
Due to the economic crisis, the far-right head of state recently asked for help from one of his best political friends: US President Donald Trump, who in turn teased Miley by calling him his “favorite president.” Washington once again wants to provide a financial package in the form of a $20 billion currency swap for the crisis-hit country.
The move is designed to influence the upcoming midterm elections, with Trump linking financial support to Miley’s success. “I’m with this guy because his philosophy is right,” Trump said before lunch with Miley at the White House on October 14. “And if he wins, we’ll stay with him. And if he doesn’t win, we’ll leave.”
It could be a close call: opinion polls predict a close contest this Sunday between Miley’s La Libertad Avanza and the resurgent Peronists of Fuerza Patria.
There is great enthusiasm among the opposition after victory in the Buenos Aires provincial elections in early September. Fuerza Patria is counting on the fact that the president’s popularity rating has fallen to 40% and the enthusiasm of young voters, his biggest supporters, has declined significantly.
Many youth have become quite disillusioned with Miley. Berensztein said, “The 2023 presidential election was decided by young people. Miley can still count on strong support from them, but not to the same extent.”
“In the interior of the country, he is still perceived as a voice against the system, even though he has never visited many of these provinces,” he said, noting that more men than women voted for president in 2023.
Corruption scandals are weighing heavily on Miley’s campaign
Much will also depend on whether Miley, who recently took to the stage as a rock star during the election campaign, will be able to shake off the latest corruption scandals.
Her sister Kareena, her party’s general secretary, the most powerful person in the government and Miley’s closest confidant, is accused of embezzling 3% of government contracts awarded to a pharmaceutical company, a charge she vehemently denies.
The “Karinagate” scandal involving leaked audio recordings was compounded by another scandal involving Miley’s party ally José Luis Espart, who has dropped out of the midterm race after admitting that he had received $200,000 from a businessman convicted of drug trafficking in the US.
“In the end, it is not the outcome of this parliamentary election that will be decisive, but how the government deals with this outcome. Of course, it is important for Miley to win the election, even by a narrow margin, in order to gain political capital and stop the Peronists’ momentum.”
“But a victory will not solve Argentina’s problems. Miley must learn to bridge and, above all, change his confrontational style.”
This article was originally written in German.