It is expected that the next few hours will be of high volatility in the markets.
After the initial upheaval, bitcoin will probably return to an upward direction.
Imagine that you spend months analyzing patterns, adjusting positions and anticipating the exact moment when the market confirms your expectations. Suddenly, that long-awaited event arrives and, instead of euphoria, you see the price plummet. This scene is frequently repeated in financial markets, and bitcoin (BTC) along with cryptocurrencies do not escape it.
Tomorrow, October 29, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (FED) announces its decision on interest rates. Operators almost certainly discount a cut, but the immediate reaction could disappoint those who expect only increases.
In the case of bitcoin, it goes through an October marked by extreme volatility. The digital asset reached a new all-time high of $126,000 at the beginning of the month and, just a week later, fell to $103,000, as seen in the chart.
“Tariff war” between the US and China hit bitcoin
This fall, which also affected cryptocurrencies, responded directly to statements by the President of the United States, Donald Trump. The president warned that his government is evaluating a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese products.
However, bitcoin resumed an upward trend, driven by signs of rapprochement between both powers. Trump assured that his country wants to “help China, not harm it.”
In fact, the possibility of a summit between Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, arises next Thursday in South Korea. The investors They expect progress to end the “tariff war” that generates uncertainty in the global economy during 2025.
Thanks to these expectations, the price of BTC recovers to $115,000. But the turbulence of October does not end. The focus is now at the FOMC meeting which concludes tomorrow.
The rate cut
Market consensus points to an imminent interest rate cut by the FED. The CME derivatives market grants a 96.7% probability that the target range is between 3.75% and 4.00%compared to the current 4.00%–4.25%.
Additionally, the Polymarket prediction market assigns a 98% probability at a reduction of 25 basis points (bps). This means that operators see a drop of a quarter of a percentage point practically assured.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, the US FED cut rates for the first time this year on September 17, when it announced the reduction to 4% annually. This movement is perceived as positive for financial markets and for bitcoin. By easing financing costs, it strengthens the appetite for risk.
When the interest rate is low, the cost of borrowing decreases and there is more liquidity in the system. In these scenarios, the appetite for risk increases and investors opt for stocks, BTC and cryptocurrencies in search of higher profits.
Therefore, the market already knows that the cut will occur. There will be no surprises tomorrow. This raises the odds of a “selling the news” event.
What does “selling the news” mean and why does it happen?
Traders have been positioning their portfolios for weeks, buying bitcoin in anticipation of the announcement. This is where the classic “news sales event” comes into play..
This phenomenon refers to the price correction that occurs immediately after an event widely anticipated and discounted by the markets finally materializes. Investors buy the asset based on rumor or expectation of the event, and once the event is formally announced, they take advantage of it to take profits, which floods the market with sell orders.
Given this scenario, it is expected that the next few hours will be high volatility in the markets.
There is a likely bullish path for bitcoin
Despite this potential shock, the medium and long-term outlook for bitcoin does not seem to alter. After the initial upheaval, bitcoin will probably return to an upward direction.
This is because, beyond the short-term decline, the rate cut is a fundamental catalyst that strengthens investors’ risk appetite. The macroeconomic engine of structural growth remains intact.
There is also the possibility of a capital rotation from gold, traditionally the safe haven par excellence, towards higher volatility assets such as bitcoin. In this context, BTC has the potential to increase its relevance.
A Bitwise study suggests that a turnover of just 1% of gold capital could take bitcoin above $134,000, while a movement of between 3% and 4% would double its current value, exceeding $215,000.
Therefore, Bitcoin Likely to Rebound Quickly as Rate Cut Introduces Fresh Liquidity and a lower cost of borrowing that inevitably seek performance. This monetary policy acts as a structural tailwind that, although it does not prevent immediate profit-taking, does establish a solid foundation for the price to resume its upward trend as investors position themselves in anticipation of these catalysts.
Having said all this, it is crucial to clarify that this is a probability based on market dynamics and monetary policy. We are not ensuring that bitcoin will fall tomorrow, but the prudent trader must be prepared for volatilided that the market anticipates.