Key facts:
The final quarter of the year will be bullish for bitcoin, according to Hougan.
There is currently uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, predicts a significant change in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in October and November. It is then that the digital asset could break out of the period of lateralization that has “trapped” it since March.
According to Hougan, historically October has proven to be a favorable month for bitcoinwith an average increase of 22%, which is expected to mitigate the typical declines in September.
In the following image, taken from the website Coinglassit is observed how the return of bitcoin has been, month by month, since 2013. It is evident there that October is among the best months for bitcoinfrom a historical perspective:
Bitwise executive explains September has consistently been the worst month for Bitcoin since its introduction to the markets in 2010, with an average drop of 4.5%. This year has been no exception.
But Bitcoin is not the only one affected. The negative September effect is a phenomenon observed even in the stock markets. The Nasdaq-100, for example, has experienced a drop of almost 6% this month. This pattern has been recorded since 1929, highlighting a historically poor performance of assets in September.
One theory that Hougan considers plausible to explain this is that of the «reflexivity»where market expectations about September performance are self-reinforcing, leading to consistent negative results. It could be said that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Regarding October, the specialist says:
«By contrast, bitcoin investors historically love October — after all, it’s nicknamed ‘Uptober’ thanks to bitcoin’s average 30% surge during the month. That likely exacerbates animal spirits. October and November are historically among the best months for cryptocurrency investors.»
Matt Hougan, CEO of Bitwise.
Looking ahead, Hougan mentions that The cryptocurrency market is being affected by global uncertaintyl, including the US presidential election and expectations of Fed rate cuts. These events are causing considerable volatility and affecting investment decisions.
Despite the current volatility, Investment advisors are adopting bitcoin ETFs at a record paceas CriptoNoticias reported yesterday, which could be indicative of underlying confidence in the long-term value of BTC.
Hougan concludes that while September presents challenges, historical trends and market adaptability indicate that We could be facing a significant rebound in October and Novemberas long as uncertainty dissipates and investors adjust their strategies in response to changing market conditions.
The Bitwise executive’s opinion is in line with that of many other analysts who also project a bitcoin rebound for the last quarter of the year. In the most recent edition of “Signals” (CriptoNoticias’ market newsletter) it was detailed that various macroeconomic and political factors would push bitcoin to new heights at the end of 2024 and, at least, in the first half of 2025.