Ministers from around the world gathered at the UN climate conference in Belém, Brazil to call for a rapid and equitable phase out of the fossil fuels primarily responsible for climate change.
Joined by representatives from countries including Germany, Colombia, the UK and Kenya, Marshall Islands climate envoy Tina Stege evoked the spirit of mutirao by calling for a “roadmap” to move away from oil, coal and gas – a Portuguese word of indigenous origin meaning ‘collective effort’.
According to negotiators, Colombia is leading some 80 countries supporting the inclusion of such a roadmap in the final COP agreement this year. It builds on the commitment first made at COP28 in Dubai, but with greenhouse gas emissions at record highs and temperatures rising, some fear the talks between nearly 200 countries lack urgency.
Dubbed the “COP of Implementation”, this year’s climate summit aims to turn high-profile promises from previous negotiations into concrete action. A clear plan that would push countries to decarbonize their economies more quickly is one of the emerging battles in the effort to seal a deal as marathon climate talks enter the final stages.
Countries need to do more to cut emissions
One of the key issues at COP30 centers around emissions-reduction targets that nations were obliged to submit this year as part of commitments made under the Paris Agreement.
Analysis of the pledges submitted shows that even if every country acts, the world is on track to massively exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) limit agreed in Paris a decade ago to avoid dangerous climate tipping points. Current policies are driving the world toward a catastrophic 2.6 to 2.8C temperature rise by 2100.
Inside the talks, pressure is growing for a clear plan to phase out oil, coal and gas. The COP30 Presidency has Circulated a draft text It includes a list of possible outcomes, such as switching to annual checks on emissions reduction progress or a joint roadmap to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels.
“This is the most cohesive first-draft package put on the table by the COP Presidency in years,” Gustavo Pinheiro of climate think tank E3G said in a statement. “It gives Belém a real chance to win a political and narrative victory.”
Stege, from the Marshall Islands, which is in danger of disappearing due to rising sea levels due to climate change, said the current reference to the fossil fuel roadmap is “weak and is presented as an alternative.”
For Jan Kowalzig, senior climate policy advisor at Oxfam Germany, the current draft merely postpones the problem.
“Neither option is an effective action plan to close the ambition gap,” he said in a statement. The ambition gap is the discrepancy between emissions reductions needed to limit global warming and those that have been agreed upon.
The pro-roadmap coalition is likely to face opposition from oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have traditionally opposed tough language on fossil fuels in COP outcomes.
Developed countries must pay for climate adaptation
The COP draft text addresses another flashpoint, and that is more financing for poor countries. The transition to a low-carbon economy also depends on how much money developing countries receive from developed countries to adapt to increasing weather extremes in a warming world.
“Countries like ours are already at the forefront,” Sierra Leone’s Environment Minister Jiwoh Abdulai said at Tuesday’s roadmap press conference. “The costs of adaptation are rising faster than our capacity.”
Developing countries at the forefront of climate change will need about $310 billion (€266 billion) per year by 2035 to adapt, according to a report by the UN Environment Programme.
Vanuatu representative Ralph Regenvanu told COP30 that climate finance systems are “failing” small island states like his.
“Climate finance is not charity. It is a legal and moral obligation,” Regenvanu said, referring to the argument that rich, industrialized nations have a responsibility to help developing states most responsible for the emissions causing climate change.
One of the proposals in the draft COP Presidency is a three-year plan setting clear expectations for how much different developed countries should contribute. It also proposed tripling the adaptation finance target to $40 billion annually.
Germany, currently the largest overall donor to adaptation funding, pledged €60 million ($69 million) to this year’s COP.
“The presidency has led the horses to water. Now they need to drink,” Rob Moore, associate director of E3G, said in a statement. “Governments have just a few days to turn the situation around after a year of aid cuts and a lax attitude from the private sector and to secure the legacy of Brazil’s vision for how the investment gap can be closed.”
Countries need to balance trade and climate action
Some governments are concerned that new climate policies, such as carbon customs duties or strict green standards, could create hidden trade barriers that could harm developing countries.
For example, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) imposes a price on carbon-intensive imports. This could lead to products from developing countries that are slower to move to renewable energy being more expensive and less competitive in the EU.
China and India are pushing for a decision against unilateral trade barriers like the CBAM. But EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra told news agency AFP that the bloc “will not be drawn into fake negotiations about trade measures.”
The COP Presidency draft suggests options such as an annual UN meeting on climate-related trade rules or creating a new forum to examine their impacts. The goal is to ensure that climate measures cut emissions without causing undue harm to the economies of other countries.
The United States, the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas polluter, did not officially attend this year’s summit, which is set to close on Friday after two weeks, but past talks have often gone into overtime.
Edited by: Jennifer Collins
With additional reporting from Giulia Saudelli, Jamilia Pranz de Oliveira and Timschauberg in Belém, Brazil.