“The structure is not yet complete,” warns the specialist.
For Battaglia, “it is not the relief, but the silence before the roar.”
The bitcoin (BTC) market has registered a technical rebound in recent days that traders interpret as a “rebound effect” after weeks of downward pressure. However, for Venezuelan financial analyst David Battaglia, this movement still does not define a change in trend.
«Liquidity is beginning to leak. “The market smells relief,” statedalthough he immediately warned that “the bullish structure is not yet complete.” According to his vision, the current scenario should not be confused with sustained recoverybecause “this is not the relief, it is the silence before the roar.”
“You have to be somewhat careful,” he said, recalling that there has been an “environment of very high negativity and correction” in recent days, with large levels of liquidation in the “lettuce hands,” that is, the weakest investors.
“At the moment, I believe that the market will stabilize heading into December,” he said. And he pointed out that BTC is on a “discount” that should be taken advantage of by all investors.
Indeed, the price of bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from its highs of $126,200, erasing the USD 100,000 mark for a couple of weeks and returning to the region of USD 80,000, from which it has not left until now. This is seen in the following graph:
The fragility in bitcoin and a possible rebound effect
Battaglia’s comments come in a context where technical and derivatives indicators continue to reflect fragility in the bitcoin market.
According to data from analysis firm Glassnode, last week’s decline, which took BTC to the $80,000 region, deepened the corrective phase and took the currency “further into an area where historically demand tends to strengthen.”
Glassnode notes that, although the predominant trend remains bearish, the recent defense of the mid-$80,000 range points to possible stabilization (and even a bitcoin “rebound effect”) if selling pressure continues to moderate.
Momentum indicators are also offering mixed signals. The 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) remained in the oversold zone before beginning to turn higher, a pattern that suggests “sustained pressure but emerging signs of exhaustion.”
In derivatives, Glassnode highlights that the cumulative values (CVD) of futures and perpetuals remain deeply negative. This, while the stable open interest indicates that the fall comes more from liquidations and position closures, not new bearish bets with leverage.
Glassnode concludes that bitcoin is going through a “controlled decline” towards deeply oversold and high-stress levels, with a possible bottom structure forming between $84,000 and $90,000.
This behavior coincides with a recent report from CriptoNoticias, which shows that both dolphins and whales have begun to identify a possible “local bottom” in the price, gradually increasing their accumulation activity. These movements usually anticipate stages of greater stability, although not necessarily an immediate change in trend.
A market in the “dark”
For David Battaglia, the analysis is not limited to the price of bitcoin, but to the behavior of assets that he considers relevant to evaluate the risk environment, such as the shares of technology companies and those linked to digital mining. Among them, Strategy, BlackRock, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, Rigetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Intel and Tesla.
According to the analyst, these components provide additional signals about liquidity and market perception. “Those who understand are not distracted: they prepare for the next wave,” he noted.
The macroeconomic outlook reinforces this sensitivity. André Chalegre, a Brazilian analyst consulted by CriptoNoticias, explains that bitcoin’s behavior in the short term is conditioned by the uncertainty generated after the prolonged administrative closure in the United States that left “darkness” on key data for monetary policy.
“It was a long time without data, and this data is very important for cutting interest rates,” he says. And it highlights that the probability of a rate reduction in December changed abruptly after the reopening, on November 13.
However, he says: “In my opinion, we are still in the game.” The above, since these variations occur in a context where other countries – such as China, Japan and several European economies – They maintain expansive policies.
This makes the United States the main restrictive exception, but also the center of global attention for risk markets, Chalegre maintains.
A trend defined by scarcity
Thinking long term, Chalegre points out that Bitcoin’s trend continues to be defined by its scarcity and by the structural fragility of fiat currencies. The above, remembering that governments “print money as if it were nothing. This causes inflation and deregulations within the global macroeconomy.
In this scenario, the analyst considers that bitcoin is strengthened as a protection asset “in times of government fragility” and high financial uncertainty.
For now, the market reading remains divided between signs of bearish exhaustion and the lack of a convincing recovery structure. As Battaglia warns, This is a phase where apparent relief can be deceptive.
Thus, the next movement will depend on both the flow of liquidity and the evolution of macroeconomic data that the market awaits with special attention. Indeed, the game is not over yet.