Higher liquidity could catalyze a final leg higher to new highs, says Hashdex.
Trump said he wants to use the tariff revenue to pay “dividends.”
United States President Donald Trump’s new push to finance direct payments to American families through tariff revenue could increase liquidity in the economy and, thereby, support a new bullish leg for bitcoin (BTC).
According to digital asset manager Hashdex, measures similar stimulus packages, historically have favored the performance of the so-called «risk assets«.
The company, issuer of the DEFI bitcoin ETF, recalled that Trump raised the idea of a tariff-funded refund check. “A policy that could inject significant liquidity into the economy,” the entity said.
Likewise, the company highlighted that the last time a comparable measure was implemented was during the pandemic, in 2020, “when stimulus flows finally supported risk assets, including the digital currency ecosystem.”
Hashdex highlighted that market behavior from previous cycles shows a clear relationship between liquidity and performance.
History shows that when liquidity increases, the digital asset ecosystem often responds strongly, even when sentiment is weak or the market faces sector-specific headwinds.
Hashdex, investment management firm.
In his analysis of the 2020–2022 phase, he added that bitcoin “recovered from pullbacks and hit new all-time highs as liquidity entered the system.” This can be seen in the following graph:
The company also noted that the current context presents even more favorable conditions than in past cycles. He mentions that “institutional adoption is accelerating, regulatory clarity is improving, and tokenization and stablecoins are gaining traction.”
If the historical pattern repeats itself, Hashdex concludes that “additional liquidity could catalyze a final leg higher to new highs.”
Trump’s refund checks
The expectation of new stimulus flows stems from a series of recent statements by President Trump and members of his economic team.
On Sunday, November 23, the director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, stated that Americans with tip and overtime income “already received the president’s proposed $2,000 rebate checks.”
trump proposed originally this scheme in early November on Truth Social, suggesting payments of $2,000 per person. In fact, last week the president reiterated his intention to implement payments between mid-to-late 2026.
“We’ve gotten hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money. “We are going to issue dividends later in the thousands of dollars to moderate-income, middle-income individuals,” said Trump to reporters at the White House.
If finalized, the tariff payments could add a new support factor for the price of bitcoin in a context of still cautious sentiment. For Hashdex, if liquidity expands again, BTC could be on track towards a final phase of appreciation heading towards new historical highs.