For Hayes, the US and China condition the market more than any Bitcoin programming.
The businessman indicated that the four-year bitcoin cycle is not something scheduled.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, recently stated that bitcoin has already gone through its correction and considers it unlikely that it will return to trading at levels close to $50,000 (USD). In an interview, the specialist analyzed the current market situation and shared his perspective on what 2026 could bring.
The businessman highlighted that the recent drop in BTC, which ranged between 15% and 35%, is completely normal within a bullish cycle. “I’m not surprised, it’s typical market behavior,” he argued.
Hayes noted that The decline from USD 125,000 to USD 80,000 showed limitations in market liquiditybut that does not indicate a general crisis. He even described what happened as a “canary in the coal mine”—a metaphor used in finance to indicate early warning signs—and added that other assets could experience similar corrections before the market consolidates.
Credit cycles and global politics
According to Hayes, who is also Maelstrom’s chief investment officer (CIO), bitcoin’s four-year cycle is not a programmed pattern but the reflection of credit periods driven by the monetary policy of the United States and China.
In this way, he explained that after the massive printing of money after the 2008 crisis, the Chinese stimulus of 2015 – which included interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending -, and the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, the current market once again reflects the liquidity generated by the decisions of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve (FED).
“We are now at the end of the beginning of this cycle and massive amounts of printing are ahead,” express.
Along these lines, the businessman also highlighted the importance of global monetary policy. In his view, heading into the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans in the United States would have a great incentive to print money and stimulate the economy. China, Japan and Europe would follow similar measures, creating a favorable environment for risk assets, including bitcoin, stocks and real estate.
Regarding the price, Hayes stated that Bitcoin could reach USD 500,000 before the end of 2026. However, he warned that the peak of the cycle will likely be reached after the 2028 US presidential election.
In this way, the Maelstrom manager remains consistent with his recent statements. As CriptoNoticias reported just a few days ago, the specialist considers it wrong to set the duration of a bitcoin cycle in advance.