Corporate giant Strategy (whose stock ticker is MSTR), owner of the largest corporate reserve of bitcoin (BTC) in the world, has the key to remaining successful: not selling its bitcoin under any circumstances, according to market analyst David Battaglia.
Battaglia holds that your massive BTC accumulation strategy It is the true bulwark that protects and enhances the real value of Strategy in the long term. He argues that the company’s shares are currently trading at a significant discount when compared to the value of its vast bitcoin holdings, which reach 650,000 BTC.
This discrepancy is measured through Strategy’s base net asset value (mNAV) multiple which has reached as high as 0.84. This indicator compares the company’s market capitalization with the total value of its bitcoin reserves. A value less than 1.00 means that the market values the entire company at an amount lower than what its BTC reserves are worth, as CriptoNoticias has explained.
The analyst is categorical when he warns that “those who do not understand Strategy can lose a lot of money.” After a 70% correction from its historical highs as seen in the graph. The analyst states with conviction: “the shares are a gift at these prices.”
His outlook is based on the appreciation potential that would be unleashed if the market corrected this apparent undervaluation. The company’s long-term vision is intrinsically linked to the revaluation of bitcoin; If Strategy maintains its key approach of not selling its bitcoin holdings or any part of them, it will fully benefit from any bullish market cycle.
Faced with volatility, Battaglia maintains its position of continuing to buy shares as long as Strategy does not sell bitcoinindicating that “MSTR and BTC are very cheap.”
Skepticism about Strategy is also in the air
Despite Battaglia’s optimism, Other analysts present a more cautious and even bearish perspective.. Damir Tokic, for example, does not hide his skepticism and points out who doesn’t like MSRT as an investment. “In fact, I think its stock is likely to continue falling,” he predicts.
However, he warns that shorting MSTR shares is “probably the most dangerous strategy,” requiring rigorous position management, and at this point, “the appropriate action is to take the profit.” Tokic reveals closing a successful bear trade: “The short position on MSTR was my best trade for 2025, and this trade is closed.”
The analyst points out that the worst-case scenario for MSTR – the one that would imply that the price of BTC fell below the average purchase price and that MSTR bondholders tried to sell their bonds – “has not yet occurred, but the price is still more than 50% below the price it had in 2024.”
Tokic concludes that if the price of bitcoin continues to fall “well below the $74,000 level, the MSTR stock price will continue to decline, which would justify maintaining the short position in MSTR.” However, the possibility of a recovery of the digital currency and, consequently, of MSTR, is realhe maintains.
Therefore, he considers that “it is appropriate to close the short position while panic selling occurs in bitcoin and MSTR shares, despite the possibility of a further decline,” he maintains.
The threat of exclusion that puts Strategy at risk
An additional and significant risk hangs over Strategy following the announcement by MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International, a provider of stock indices and portfolio risk metrics).
MSCI is consulting on a proposal to exclude from their indices companies whose main activity is treasury management in bitcoin or other digital assetsas long as such holdings represent 50% or more of its total assets. Strategy is one of the companies directly affected by this consultation, which will run until December 31, with results expected on January 15.
According to JP Morgan, the largest bank in the United States, this exclusion could cause Strategy to lose billions of dollars in stock if MSCI removes it from its major stock indexes.
«The fall [de las acciones de MSRT] “probably reflects growing concerns that the company may be excluded from major benchmark indices,” the bank noted.
And one cannot fail to mention the fact that over the weekend, Phong LE, CEO of Strategy, revealed that the company could sell bitcoin in case the mNAV remains below 1 and the company cannot meet obligations to investors (such as the payment of dividends). In this way, the narrative that Strategy will never sell its BTC falls, which collapses an idea that many had taken as unquestionable truth. Thus, there is a systemic risk that is expanding in the cryptocurrency ecosystem (and is possibly one of the reasons why bitcoin is falling below $86,000)
The key to Strategy bitcoin is not just an investment strategy, but the sticking point of an intense debate in the financial market. Although the accumulation model defends the long-term potential, the exposure to the volatility of the digital currency and the imminent threat of exclusion from stock indices paint a panorama of considerable risk for the company that could extend to the entire bitcoin market in the event of a “catastrophe.”