December 8 marks the first anniversary of the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. The Assad family ruled Syria for more than 50 years, with Hafez Assad in power since 1971 and then, after his death, his son Bashar took power in 2000.
Assad’s autocratic rule led to a popular uprising in 2011, then a brutal civil war that lasted nearly 14 years. But on December 8, 2024, the Assad regime fell with little resistance, in a lightning strike led by the rebel militia group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. Assad and his family fled to Russia, and in January HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa became Syria’s interim president.
One year later, what has been achieved in Syria and what has not been achieved?
Security and stability: ‘Fragmented landscape’
There are no more barrel bombs being dropped from helicopters or Russian air strikes on medical clinics. But, as a november briefing “Syria is grappling with a fragmented security landscape,” the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report said.
The capital, Damascus, is relatively quiet, and according to syria weeklyA regular newspaper from Charles Lister, an expert on America, believes that thanks to the Middle East Institute, the level of violence is falling.
But the UNSC briefing said there were still clashes between security forces of the new Syrian government and other groups across the country, such as those belonging to Syria’s Kurd and Druze minorities.
Pro-Assad forces are also still present, although hidden, and the resurgence of the extremist “Islamic State” group is also problematic as the group takes advantage of poor security.
It is clear that the new Syrian authorities do not have complete control of the country, a recent report As stated by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUA). “Incidents of lawlessness, criminality and retaliatory violence have been reported,” the agency said.
Lack of ‘central government support’ in transitional justice
One of the main reasons for the ongoing incidents of violence is the targeting of those considered allies of the former Assad regime. That’s why transitional justice – a process that would acknowledge crimes committed by the Assad regime as well as other groups – is so important, says the Washington-based Syria Justice and Accountability Center (SJAC). Discussed in a September article.
In May, two independent commissions were created by the government – one focused on finding the thousands of Syrians still missing after the war, and the other on crimes committed by the Assad regime.
SJAC reported that the former have been the most active while the latter “have seen less progress, possibly due to less support from the central government.”
Groups like Human Rights Watch have also criticized Syria’s National Transitional Justice Commission only looks at crimes committed by Assad’s government, and ignores crimes committed by other groups such as – potentially – HTS and its affiliates.
Politics: ‘Too soon’ for democracy in Syria?
The first relatively free elections for parliamentary representatives were held in Syria earlier this year. Due to the circumstances, officials explained that the election could not be direct – instead it worked mostly through electoral colleges. Al-Sharaa will remain interim president until the new constitution is implemented.
Syria is currently drafting a new constitution and has held a national dialogue for consultation on this and other topics.
However, serious differences remain between the interim government and other communities over the future governance of the country. Critics also claim that al-Sharaa is consolidating power and behaving increasingly like an autocrat.
For now, analysts are taking a “wait and see” attitude.
Patricia Karam, a fellow at the Arab Center Washington, said, “It is certainly too early to talk about democratizing Syria, but the new institutions that have emerged represent a modest re-entry into electoral politics.” wrote in november“These developments place Syria at a critical juncture: the country can move toward genuinely participatory governance or return to authoritarianism,”
Foreign Policy: Foreign military operations ‘increase regional tensions’
This is the area in which Syria has perhaps seen the greatest changes. Closed embassies are being reopened and newly appointed politicians such as the Syrian Foreign Minister and President al-Sharaa have toured the world.
Previously, al-Sharaa, who once worked with the terrorist group al-Qaeda, was on several sanctions lists and even had a $10 million (€8.6 million) bounty on his head. But in September, he was able to address the United Nations General Assembly and in November, he became the first Syrian leader to visit the White House since 1946.
Syrian officials have contacted all five permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia and China. This is seen as a sign of how pragmatic Syria’s foreign policy has become: Russia was an ally of the Assad regime, and al-Sharaa as well as several of its associates may have been targeted by Russia before.
Currently, Syria’s biggest foreign policy problem is likely to be the continued incursions into Syrian territory by neighboring Israel. Najat Roshdi, the UN deputy special envoy for Syria, said, “Israeli military operations … endanger civilians, escalate regional tensions, undermine the fragile security environment and threaten political transition.” said in november,
Society: ‘Families found nothing but ruins’
Many Syrians who fled the country during the war are returning home. Recent data shows that approximately 2.9 million Syrians have returned – including approximately 1.9 million internally displaced Syrians and more than one million who have returned from abroad.
But they have to face big problems. according to Norwegian Refugee Council data“Many families return [Syria] “Finding nothing but ruins…people are returning to damaged infrastructure, destroyed schools and hospitals, and disputes over who owns their homes.”
in November International Rescue Committee The report said that “more than half the water supply networks and four out of five electricity grids have either been destroyed or are not working.”
Reconstruction in Syria is estimated to cost between $250 billion (€172 billion) and $400 billion (€345 billion), and possibly even higher.
The Syrian people are trying to change this.
among other things, recent analysis A study by the US-based aid organization, Mercy Corps, based on satellite imagery of night-time lighting in the country, found that power generation is improving – although the improvements are not yet nationwide.
And in early November, Syrian government news agency SANAIt said that 823 schools have been renovated across the country while work on another 838 is in progress.
Economy: Material recovery ‘has not yet been realized’
Many of the returnees are not even able to find work. The country’s civil war devastated its economy. Today, about a quarter of Syrians still live in extreme poverty.
However there is good news. A world bank report The Syrian economy is expected to grow by 1% in 2025 according to forecasts published in July this year.
Most Assad-era sanctions have been lifted, either permanently or temporarily, and this should aid economic recovery. Additionally, financial support from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the form of billion-dollar investment deals could also help – although as the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy told“The material impact on the everyday lives of the Syrian people has not yet been felt.”
Edited by: Maren Sass