Currently, bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $90,000.
The worst last quarter was recorded in 2018.
This time, the Christmas rally did not come for bitcoin (BTC). Instead of gifts, bitcoiners found coal under the tree, with a market that closed the year lower and far from the usual bullish expectations for this time.
At the time of publication of this note, the price of bitcoin is 88,000 dollars30% below its all-time high (ATH) of $126,100:
As CriptoNoticias has reported, New Year’s Eve Parties usually coincide with periods of bullish momentum for BTC, a behavior that fueled the idea of the “Christmas rally” for years..
However, 2025 breaks that logic. The digital asset is going through one of the worst last four months in its history (September, October, November and December), with a cumulative fall of close to 22.06%, as seen below:
If 2025 closed this way, it would be the second worst year-end for BTC, only surpassed by that of 2018, when the price plummeted by 42.16%.
Now, it is worth asking what is behind this fall. At the beginning of October, BTC surpassed the $126,000 barrier for the first time in its history.
At that time, the market was breathing strong enthusiasm, with growing expectations that the asset could advance towards the $130,000 area.
However, on October 10, the market reacted strongly to a new source of tension between the United States and China, triggering a sharp drop in prices.
That day, President Donald Trump used his Truth Social account to warn that his administration was analyzing the possibility of applying a “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese products.
The message was enough to reactivate fears of a new escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies and hit the spirit of investors squarely.
That episode marked a turning point for the market. The geopolitical noise appeared at a time of demanding valuations and with much of the optimism already incorporated into the price.
This weakened confidence and left BTC with no room to sustain the bullish inertia that usually characterizes the final stretch of the year, giving way to a scenario of greater caution and profit-taking.
One event that was expected to act as a catalyst for the market was an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED).
On December 10, the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was held, in which the monetary policy of the world’s main financial power was defined.
As the markets anticipated, the body chaired by Jerome Powell cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Historically, this type of decision usually awakens the appetite for risk, since it lowers the cost of money and favors the entry of liquidity into financial markets.
However, On this occasion the cut was not enough to reactivate the euphoria. Risk appetite did not return and assets considered risky, such as BTC and cryptocurrencies, failed to capitalize on the measure.
This BTC correction reflects a change in the market mood. And after setting historical highs at the beginning of October, the momentum was diluted and gave way to a dynamic of profit-taking and caution, with investors less willing to take on risk in the absence of new clear bullish signals.
But neither expectations of a seasonal rally nor the FED’s rate cut managed to reverse that climate.
With euphoria out of the picture, BTC went through the end of 2025 in defensive mode, leaving one of its worst performances in the final stretch of the year and breaking, once again, with the narrative of the Christmas rally.