On February 28, the United States launched “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran. in a week Subsequently, the US launched thousands of strikes across the country, deploying more than 20 weapons systems in the air, land and sea.
In the first wave of American-Israeli strikes, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated. US President Donald Trump has said the conflict could last four to five weeks, but the US has the “capability to last much longer than that”.
How confident is the Trump administration?
trump administration Has been enthusiastic about American military capability.
“We have no shortage “War material,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said during a visit to U.S. Central Command in Florida. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to continue this campaign for as long as we need.”
General Dan Kane, The Joint Chiefs of Staff chair gave similar assurances, “We have enough precision warfare for both offensive and defensive operations.”
However, Trump has quietly acknowledged where the issues may lie. In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, he wrote, “United States munitions stockpiles, at the medium and upper medium grades, have never been higher or better… At the highest levels, we have good supplies but we are not where we want to be.”
Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank, agrees that Trump’s margin on weapons grades matters. These are the highest range, long range missiles and interceptors where the concerns are greatest. “There are actually some real limits on reserves there,” he said.
Mathematic of struggle
Since the beginning of the conflict, The US, Israel and Iran have launched a series of attacks across the region. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US targeted more than 3,000 targets in Iran in the first 7 days.
In return, Iran has launched thousands of Shaheed 136 drones and hundreds of missilesAmerican targets throughout the region.
right here Math becomes uncomfortable.
Martyr of Iran Drones cost between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce. There are a number of ways the US and allies are defending against them, but none are cheap. Fighters equipped with AIM-9 missiles cost $450,000 per shot, plus $40,000 per hour of rent to operate the aircraft. “cost of “Flying a fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a martyr,” says Grieco, “it’s not efficient.” “It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”
She argues tThe US should have learned from Ukraine, which has found cheap methods like interceptor drones that cost less than a martyr. “The United States has tested [that technology]It just hasn’t bought it in sufficient numbers,” Grieco said.
Far more expensive Patriot defense missiles (costing about $3 million per missile) is reserved to deter Iran’s ballistic missiles, and this is where the concerns about the stockpile lie. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, estimates that the stock is being used up rapidly. “ATea At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots and I think we’ve pretty much chewed through that list now.” He estimates that 200-300 Patriot missiles have already been used.
hIt takes time to make such high class weapons. Lockheed Martin will deliver only 620 PAC-3 interceptors throughout 2025. “If you went to the company today and said I want to buy another Patriot, it would take at least two years for that Patriot to arrive,” says Cancian.
for short range The picture of weapons like bombs, JDAM kits and Hellfire missiles is different. “Militarily, I think we can sustain this for a very long time. You know, we have the ground weapons to do that,” says Cancian.
White House meets with defense companies
on the 6thth In March, Trump met with several defense companies, later posting on Truth Social that manufacturers had agreed to quadruple production Weapon of the highest class. The White House emphasized that the meeting had been ongoing for several weeks.
However, Grieco expressed doubts about the novelty of the deals. “It felt like a non-announcement to me because in the last months Most of these had already been announced.”
Lockheed Martin’s agreement to increase Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 per year has been public since January. No new deadline was given after the White House meeting. target date 2030 lasts.
Even speeding up production It is not straightforward. “There are bottlenecks everywhere that even if you throw a lot of money at the problem, It’s not as simple as turning on a switch and producing. “It’s still going to take time,” Grieco said.
global results
Analysts agree that the US is unlikely to run out of weapons in a fight in Iran. But there are concerns about the future.
“Will it end? “I wouldn’t put it that way,” Grieco says. I don’t think anything is really going to end in this war. but the problem is […] We will be left with these bare stores […] And this will limit our choices in terms of the Indo-Pacific and Europe or even the Middle East in the coming years.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already issued a warning.
“There are concerns that in the event of a prolonged war, the US could reduce supplies of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine.” Zelensky told Italian national broadcaster RAI.
In an interview with Bloomberg, FFormer Secretary of State Antony Blinken had also given a similar warning. He said the continued campaign in Iran could make the US vulnerable to threats from Russia and China.
Is Iran being underestimated?
JeanEral Dan Kane has reported that Iranian ballistic missile launches are “down 86% since the first day of the fighting.” Washington took this as a sign of progress.
Grieco, for his part, admits that it is difficult to know the details. The reason behind the decline in Iranian launches is likely to be “We have made a significant reduction in ballistic missile force”
When it comes to Iran’s martyr drones, Scattered production reserves make estimation incredibly difficult. “Even before the war, we didn’t really have a good idea of how many people they might have,” Grieco said. “You can assemble it in your garage if you really want.”
More fundamentally, he argues that the US may have underestimated Iran. “If the goal is regime change… then air power alone will not bring about the collapse of the regime.”
He Thinks that Iran’s past restraint in responding to US and Israeli attacks was interpreted as weakness and argues that it led to a series of deterrence failures. “They are fighting for the survival of the regime. They have an incentive to fight hard and pay a very high price.”
Cancian agrees: “We have hit them hard and they have not sued for peace,” he said, adding, “This could be unexpected.”
The quick capture of former leader Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela further inflamed Washington’s beliefs about the potential consequences of Operation Epic Fury. But America has been wrong about the length and cost of its wars before. The Trump administration’s weapons stockpile in Iran may not be exhausted, but questions remain about the supplies that will be left with the US after it ends.
Edited by: Jess Smee